A few days ago France announced its intentions to push for new negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel. Their plan is to kick-start the talks with a conference this summer. Almost everyone will welcome such an effort, even if the prospects for success seems rather dark.
A strange feature of the French initiative, however, is that it contains an ultimatum: if the negotiations efforts fails, France will recognize a Palestinan state. Not surprisingly has the Palestinian Authority President Mahmood Abbas expressed satisfaction with the initiative, while Israel moved quickly to reject the French ultimatum.
So far about 135 of the United Nations 193 member countries have recognized Palestine as an independent state. Many western countries have said they will wait for a peace deal, and only 8 EU countries have given their recognition. So why don´t France just recognize Palestine instead of connecting the recognition to a negotiation initiative which can not succeed ?
A possible answer is that the French Socialist Party is looking forward to the presidential election next year, scheduled to be held in April and May. This will be a contest where National Front is predicted to be a strong challenger. To gain support from the Muslim population, which accounts for about 8 % of the country's population, will be great advantage for the Socialist Party. Recognition of a Palestine state might be helpful. But France wants to ride two horses at the same time - one for a re-start of negotiations and one for a recognition of Palestine. The problem is that the horses seems to be running in opposite directions.
