Monday 30 January 2017

The Reformation comes to Valletta on 3 February


The EU is staging a new informal summit on Friday 3 February. 28 heads of state of government will come together in the Maltese capital Valletta. The meeting will consist of two parts. In the morning, the 28 EU heads of state of government will address the external dimension of migration. They are expected to focus their discussions on the Central Mediterranean route and Libya. The UK will then say goodbye, and the afternoon will be an occasion for the remaining 27 leaders to prepare for the upcoming 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties on 25 March 2017.

The afternoon event will be a continuation of the political reflection on the future of the European Union, which started after the UK Brexit referundum 23 June last year and so far has resulted in the Bratislava declaration. On 16 September, when the 27 leaders met in Bratislava they ".. committed .. to offer to our citizens in the upcoming months a vision of an attractive EU they can trust and support." They set out the general principles for action
*focusing on citizens' expectations and  serving better their need  *improving communication and cooperation between member              *states delivering on promises and making the EU 27 a success
Leaders also agreed on the Bratislava Roadmap, which will guide EU action over the next months. After Malta the 27 leaders will conclude the reflection process in Rome on 25 March 2017, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties.

With the election of Donald Trump as US President the context of both the migration policy and EU reforms has changed dramatically. And with Brexit uncertainties and forthcoming elections in several European countries this year the EU future seems more unpredictable than ever. Andrew Rettmann  provides a summary of the situation in the EU Observer.

Thursday 26 January 2017

The Spinning Wheel of Nationalism-Globalism


After years with escalating globalism the nationalists managed to win two important games in 2016. Brexit and Trump. Used to sailing downwind the globalists have got a powerful headwind.  How do they handle it ?

Afraid of a nationalist Geert Wilder victory in the forthcoming Dutch elections globalist Dutch PM Rutte took the gloves off and preached a more "populist" view in front of the Davos elite. In a clash with former European Parliament President and hardcore globalist Martin Schulz he advocated a pragmatic approach and to stop lofty speeches. Rutte called for tangible results on migration, security or the internal market in the effort to create jobs. He even went as far to say that the ‘ever closer union’ principle is “buried and gone”. Schultz counterattacked by praising the achievements of the past and the need to push forward EU integration. So while some hope and believe Brexit and Trump will unite the 27 remaining EU member countries further, a more divided Union is perhaps more likely.

And in the UK globalist and Brexit conductor May is leaving 10 Downing Street for talks with nationalist President Trump. The Prime Minister will also address the annual congressional Republican Retreat in Philadelphia and say that the UK and USA will “renew the special relationship” now that President Trump is in the White House. In her speech, Mrs May will compare President Trump’s election to the Brexit referendum, making clear that both votes represent a chance to “renew” America and Britain. May is also expected to say that “.. as we rediscover our confidence together, as you renew your nation just as we renew ours, we have the opportunity – indeed the responsibility – to renew the special relationship for this new age. We have the opportunity to lead, together, again.”

The clashes between the nationalists and globalists will continue and might be tougher than they are today. But hopefully the spinning wheel of dialogue and combat will unite the threads in a fruitful compromise.



Thursday 19 January 2017

PM May´s Brexit speech


PM May had chosen Lancaster House as the venue for her Brexit speech two days ago. It is an historic building, which has been used in many important occasions. The European Advisory Commission had its seat there, and started its work on 14 January 1944. This commission, with participation from the UK, the US and the Sovjet Union, was to study the postwar political problems in Europe and make recommendations to the three governments. The recommendations of the EAC shaped the development of postwar Europe. And in 1988 PM Thatcher held her "Europe Open for Business" speech there, extolling the virtues of the Single Market.

Now May will have a Brexit which takes the UK out of the Single Market. She will instead negotiate a trade agreement. And if she not can get a good agreement, she will leave the EU without an agreement. This is PM May´s master plan for Brexit. The EU says this was expected and that the negotiations will be very, very, very difficult.

And there is no doubt that the negotiations will be difficult. Very much is at stake. But there seems to be a broad understanding that the process must go on and that the goal must be to achieve a solution which benefits both the UK and the EU. This is about a reshaping of Europe. The EU cooperation will only survive if the member states and their citizens see it as positive. The EU must give added value - otherwise it is doomed to fail.




Monday 16 January 2017

Paris Mideast conference not very successful for peace - but perhaps helpful for French Socialist Party


A year ago, in January 2016, France announced its intensions to push for new negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel, and in June the country hosted diplomats from the west and the Arab world to work on organising a peace conference by the end of the year that would launch long-dormant Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

The peace conference was held in Paris yesterday, with participation from around 70 countries and organisations. But neither Israel or the Palestinians were present. 

The conference is widely seen as a last-ditch attempt to save the two-state solution ahead of Donald Trump's investiture as US president. Dispite a joint declaration which reaffirmed that a negotiated solution with two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security, is the only way to achieve enduring peace, the initiative will hardly stimulate the peace process. For example the requirement that Israel should fully end end the occupation that began in 1967 seems unrealistic. UK did not back the communique and also the Australian government has distanced itself from the concluding statement. The statement might be the basis for a UN resolution this week, without the hope of peace thus become larger.

Perhaps the conference will be of greater importance for the organizer. With a Muslim share of 8 % of France´s population, yesterdays event and a possible UN resolution can be helpful for the Socialist Party in the forthcoming presidential election.

Monday 9 January 2017

Can Brexit be a Win Win ?


Later this month PM May will give a speach about Brexit, and present more information about what kind of Brexit the UK will head for. Until then the public will have to speculate and guess.

The signals so far indicate that May thinks it is possible for the UK to get a relationship with the EU which makes it possible for the country to control immigration and have sufficient access to the Single Market. Many disagree with such an optimistic view and believe that UK will have to choose. It is probably impossible to say who is right before it is negotiated.

Some believe that the EU will "punish" the UK, so that other member states are not tempted to withdraw. But that is a short-sighted analysis. For the EU to be meaningful the member states must thrive and feel that participation in the Union is something positive. The membership shall not be a burden and straitjacket. If a country wants another form of relationship than membership, the EU should be flexible. The EU must develop its organization and policies so that the Union is perceived as a positive and necessary complement to the nation states of Europe - not as a supranational unit for big government.

The EEA agreement is an example of how countries which do not want a EU membership can interact with the Union. The relationship is not perpect. Far from. But in spite of the shortcomings, it has been useful for the participants. 

So it is quite possible to imagine a Brexit agreement which is positive for the UK and also for the EU - if it shows that the Union can adapt constructively when a country thinks that membership does not provide added value.