tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4286388357386359312024-02-02T07:45:27.212+01:00Starry DaysA critical look at the EU and European integrationUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-9309302564084268372017-03-24T10:32:00.001+01:002017-03-24T10:34:53.678+01:00EU future - added value is key<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUjF4LJpQDONdsHmfnnBJNP_t6r8GrlC4l3ybRWHq-qVM3dCSS4FG0QYb4VkQ5UAp2GwX4DYpqYEYWfFMsRN5WvkOSVOblEOXsq_VtL3GlXb2bJHTBxD6CG46aC7BWInScJK0goBYdBqk/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528114%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUjF4LJpQDONdsHmfnnBJNP_t6r8GrlC4l3ybRWHq-qVM3dCSS4FG0QYb4VkQ5UAp2GwX4DYpqYEYWfFMsRN5WvkOSVOblEOXsq_VtL3GlXb2bJHTBxD6CG46aC7BWInScJK0goBYdBqk/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528114%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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EU has always been about added value. Its predecessor The European Coal and Steel Community was established in 1951 as a way to prevent further war between France and Germany. These two countries had time after time ended in war when they acted separately. By placing French and German production of coal and steel - vital resources for a country to wage a war - <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">under a supranational common High Authority, peace was preserved and France and Germany got added value. The idea of using regional integration to achieve more than the participants are able to do separately was developed further, and when the flag of The European Coal and Steel Community was lowered for the final time outside the European Commission building in Brussels in 2002, it was replaced with the EU flag - symbolizing how an innovative idea had prevailed.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">But no tree grows into heaven. The EU integration project has met obstacles and crisis. People</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"> in Europe want to keep the EU, but <span class="">they want</span> <span class="">changes. And the EU establishment should listen. What they call populism is democratic feedback. People react because they don´t feel the European Union gives added value - or more precise: they recognize and appreciate some important aspects of the integration, like a common market, but the project has gone to far. Especially when it comes to democracy many oppose the development and say "this is not added value, this is less democracy."</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">So instead of an ever closer union, the leading star must be a supranational cooperation which gives added value to everyone. This means a less ambitious integration with respect to "volume", but a more ambitious integration when it comes </span></span></span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">to identifying areas <span class="">and tasks where the EU can give added value for a diverse Europe.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""> </span></span> </span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-64331041260411416522017-03-15T10:26:00.002+01:002017-03-15T10:26:58.058+01:00EU 60 years - shaky, but important<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The EUs 60th anniversary will be celebrated in many ways, with a special European Council summit in Rome on 25 March as the most symbolic. It was on this date Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany signed the Treaty of Rome in 1957.<br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>EU</span> <span>summarizes</span> the <span>developments</span> <span class="">on its <a href="https://europa.eu/european-union/eu60_en">website</a></span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Sixty years ago in Rome, the foundations were laid for the Europe
that we know today, ushering in the longest period of peace in written
history in Europe. The Treaties of Rome established a common market
where people, goods, services and capital can move freely and created
the conditions for prosperity and stability for European citizens.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
On this anniversary, Europe looks back with pride and looks forward
with hope. For 60 years we have built a Union that promotes peaceful
cooperation, respect of human dignity, liberty, democracy, equality and
solidarity among European nations and peoples. Now, Europe's shared and
better future is ours to design.</blockquote>
The description points to important positive contributions, but does not reflect the European Union´s current crisis. <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>However, it is</span> <span>necessary</span> <span>to deal with this</span> <span>in a good way</span> <span>for</span> <span>the EU to</span> <span>survive</span> <span class="">and provide added value in the future.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">And it should not be impossible to achieve a workable compromise between europhiles and -sceptics. </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">The common vision must</span> <span class="">be</span> <span class="">an appropriate mix</span> <span>of</span> <span>decentralization</span> <span>and</span> <span>supranational</span> <span>power.</span> "An ever closer union" is a dead end street.</span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">Even if the UK don´t want to be part of the single market and is heading for a "hard" Brexit, other sceptics are less radical. E.g. said one of the participants in todays Dutch elections, Geert Wilders, a few days ago to <a href="http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/nederland/geert-wilders-aapner-for-norsk-loesning-for-nederland/a/23947362/">Norwegian</a> journalists that he wanted the national sovereignty back, but that he might accept a Norway-model with EEA-membership. So the EEA, which includes the single market and some other cooperation areas, might give some ideas for development of a new EU vision.</span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-89872175374506459932017-03-10T16:16:00.002+01:002017-03-10T16:16:27.761+01:00EU future - everything in play<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_bSiRCvNNDQ_cZwNNiDI3P5aoIDRSyC-gRRNSrw-k0e6-KZ1cfDrdx7PJx-9-ZcZeN0GFPREpm5wPIfzMnCgktOr339xWBVe5umgZ1V0zotLaBwbczqWMpXGW7GsccsLGs-70MVZOBEA/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528111%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_bSiRCvNNDQ_cZwNNiDI3P5aoIDRSyC-gRRNSrw-k0e6-KZ1cfDrdx7PJx-9-ZcZeN0GFPREpm5wPIfzMnCgktOr339xWBVe5umgZ1V0zotLaBwbczqWMpXGW7GsccsLGs-70MVZOBEA/s320/Skjermbilde+%2528111%2529.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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While the European Council today is preparing the EU´s 60th anniversary declaration without PM May attending, the growing lack of European unity makes it hard to deliver anything <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span><span class="">other than</span> <span class="">general</span> <span class="">phrases about the future EU.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">At the summit yesterday Poland refused to accept a continuation for Donald Tusk as European Council President. The traditional consenus was stalled. </span></span>“We know now that it [the EU] is a union under Berlin’s diktat,” the
Polish foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/09/donald-tusk-re-elected-as-european-council-president-despite-polish-opposition">told</a> Polish media.<br />
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Earlier this week France, Germany, Italy and Spain - "the big 4" - <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/in-versailles-eus-big-4-back-multi-speed-europe-italy-france-germany-spain/">backed</a> multispeed Europe (Juncker´s <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2017/03/the-commission-rides-again.html">scenario</a> 3), a future which the Visegrad group - Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic - does not like.<br />
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The leaders participating in the summit yesterday <a href="http://to set up a European public prosecutor to probe financial crimes against the EU budget.">agreed</a> to let a group of willing go ahead with plans to set up a European public prosecutor to probe financial crimes against the EU budget. EU Observer writes: "The move is largely procedural but also symbolic for an EU currently
debating the possibility of a so-called multi-speed Europe, where some
countries can forge ahead with deeper integration."<br />
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The multi-speed strategy is an old idea. When the frontrunners successfully achive added value, the slow ones will be tempted to follow. And <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span> <span>integration</span> <span>will</span> <span class="">be strengthened. </span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">But the consequences of multi-speed seems more likely to be confusion and disintegration. What matters most is the tasks unifying all the 27 member states. They are the basis and the core of the Union. So instead of escalating multi-speed, the strategy should be to </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">democratize</span><span class="">,</span> <span class="">concentrate</span> <span class="">and </span><span>streamline a one-speed European Union.</span></span><br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-73731431989371121942017-03-06T11:01:00.000+01:002017-03-06T11:01:24.954+01:00Vision impossible ?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Last week the European Commission published a White paper on the future of Europe. 5 <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2017/03/the-commission-rides-again.html">scenarios</a> were presented: 1. Carrying On, 2. Nothing but the Single Market, 3. Those Who Want More Do More, 4. Doing Less More Efficiently and 5. Doing Much More Together.<br />
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The White Paper does not recommend one of the scenerarios, the purpose said to be to inspire a broad discussion in the coming months. After that, in September 2017, Juncker will present his personal views.<br />
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The White Paper´s most important contribution to the EU reform process is perhaps that it apparently recognizes and authorizes the existence of different visions for the European Union´s future. None of them should be excluded from the reform discussions.<br />
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The Commission´s openmindedness for discussing reform alternatives might be hard to swallow for the different camps, and already today EurActiv <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/juncker-will-fight-for-more-europe-in-post-brexit-eu/">reports</a> that "a scenior Commission official" says Juncker has a preference for the latter option, where the 27 EU members
share more powers, resources and decision-making across the board. According to the official Juncker is not a supporter of a two-speed Europe, the third scenario. Juncker <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">alleged</span> <span>rejection of</span> <span>scenario</span> <span>3, which</span> <span>he has previously</span> <span>preferred,</span> </span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span> <span>is</span> <span>related to the </span><span class="">Visegrad</span> <span class="">countries'</span> <span class="">strong</span> <span class="">dislike for</span> <span class="">this</span> <span class="">option.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">But in France the En Marche presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron outlines plans for scenario 3. The Eurozone is held back by "shame" and we must "dare to go for a multi-speed Europe", he <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/macron-outlines-plans-for-multi-speed-europe/">says</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">And in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations the UK, as a backdrop for the EU reform process, will try to show that </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>participation</span> <span>in the internal market</span> <span class="">is not needed.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">Status seems to be that agreement on a EU vision is far away, and the most likely scenario is number 1. Carrying On.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""> </span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-91179670386430466302017-03-02T15:54:00.002+01:002017-03-02T15:54:44.245+01:00The Commission rides again <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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After years with a Commission looking like a bystander to the crisis management of the European Council, President Juncker finally had the leading role yesterday. He presented a <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-385_en.htm">White Paper</a> on the future of Europe.<br />
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The White Paper, which gives "reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025", is interesting, and the Juncker commission deserves credit for this initiative.<br />
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5 scenarios are presented:<br />
<br />
1: Carrying On<br />
2: Nothing but the Single Market<br />
3: Those Who Want More Do More<br />
4: Doing Less More Efficiently<br />
5: Doing Much More Together<br />
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Together they cover critisism of the status quo and the different views of which reforms are needed. There are many overlaps between each scenario, and they are therefore neither mutually exclusive, nor exhaustive.<br />
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The White Paper does not recommend one of the scenarios, the purpose is to inspire a broad discussion in the coming months. Then, in his State of the Union speech in September 2017, Juncker will present his personal views.<br />
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To preserve and strengthen the EU, a combination of number 2 and 4 seems to be a possible path to follow. Number 3, which is already a reality for some areas, should not be the vision for the future of Europe. This scenario means several unions - not a common European Union. <br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-60121554129396773762017-02-24T10:38:00.001+01:002017-02-24T10:38:35.512+01:00Brexit and the internal market<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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According to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) Article 26(2)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The internal market shall comprise an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured in accordance with the provisions of the Treaties.</blockquote>
The UK, which today participates in the internal market, is now heading for a future outside this EU integration. Instead the government will go for a lower level of integration with the EU and try to negotiate a good trade agreement. This strategy is very interesting, because it represents a deintegration and an exit from the process which regulates the internal market.<br />
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There is another option the UK could have chosen. The EEA agreement allows Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein to participate in the internal market without being EU members. The EEA agreement is also dynamic, new relevant EU-laws are incorporated as soon as they are adopted. The UKs strategy is more like the Swiss-EU relationship. Switzerland participates in the internal market based on a lot of separate agreements outside the EEA.<br />
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The Brexit-negotiations will show if it is possible for the UK to get satisfactory access to the internal market without participating in it. One of the challenges will be to cope with the dynamic development of the internal market.<br />
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The Brexit negotiations will also provide more insight <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span><span class="">into</span><span class=""> integration</span> <span class="">as a supplement to </span><span>national governance</span> <span>and</span> <span class="">integration</span> <span class="">as an end in</span> <span class="">itself.</span></span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-78387325845064264812017-02-20T10:28:00.001+01:002017-02-20T10:33:44.606+01:00EU-reforms must be bottom up<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The European Union has been an elitist project from the very beginning. The French proposal to establish a European Coal and Steel Community, the predecessor to the EU, was a top down initiative. The aim - to make war not only unthinkable but materially unpossible - was of course very praiseworthy. And the supranational basis for the Community was an important innovation. It is also understandable that efficiency was a priority and that cumbersome democratic processes were avoided.<br />
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But although the Coal and Steel Community successfully survived difficulties and was <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">followed by an even <span class="">more ambitious supranational Europan integration project, the democratic shortcomings has never been </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">rectified <span class="">satisfactorily. An illustration is that the EU today has three presidents, neither of them directly elected by the European people.</span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">EU</span> <span class="">as an</span> <span class="">elitist</span> <span class="">project</span> <span class="">now seems</span> <span class="">to have</span> <span class="">hit the wall. The supranational organisation </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">has ended up in its biggest <span class="">crisis ever. And the </span></span><span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="en">Brussels-bubble seems incapable of identifying and taking <span class="">the necessary steps forward. The expectations for good reform ideas to be presented at the EUs 60th anniversary in March are low. </span></span><br />
<span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="short_text" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">The populus is dissatisfied. "Populist" parties and movements </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">demand changes and challenge the elites in <span class="">EUs member states. Brexit and Trump show that </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">breakthroughs are possible. The elites perceives this as a dangerous problem. But in reality it is democracy working. And this is also how the EU hopefully can be reformed: from bottom-up by the populus who generate enough pressure to achieve necessary changes. </span></span><br />
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<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-55742512262398017842017-02-15T10:58:00.000+01:002017-02-15T10:58:18.548+01:00Brexit guidelines<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtwXQ4KSryYwUuHIZ7UM8boJw1PdDy9M-LRB17nnQIUf6eY2C6ECuk33nujrUqheHbfbH7Tmshf6fQhLHuSryziqXDRqr9ZHcvEaZqDue9YVFbrbPMsk5b92yPrjRHz8OMqLk-vo4qs80/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252856%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtwXQ4KSryYwUuHIZ7UM8boJw1PdDy9M-LRB17nnQIUf6eY2C6ECuk33nujrUqheHbfbH7Tmshf6fQhLHuSryziqXDRqr9ZHcvEaZqDue9YVFbrbPMsk5b92yPrjRHz8OMqLk-vo4qs80/s320/Skjermbilde+%252856%2529.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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As soon as the UK formally has notified the EU about its intention to leave the Union - i e having triggered article 50 - the negotiation process will start. The <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>basis for the EU</span> <span>negotiations</span> will <span>be adopted</span> <span>in</span> <span class="">guidelines</span><span class="">. </span><span class="">Article 50</span> <span class="">says</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
...In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with the State, settting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union...</blockquote>
The guidelines must be adopted <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">unanimously by the European Council. In informal meetings <a href="file:///C:/Users/eier/AppData/Local/Temp/sn00060%20en16.pdf">29 June</a> and <a href="file:///C:/Users/eier/AppData/Local/Temp/15-euco-statement-2.pdf">15 December</a> 2016 the heads of state of governments of the EU without UK (27 member states) have expressed common views on Brexit.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">The two statements include a declaration that any agreement will have to be based on a balance of rights and obligations and that access to the Single Market requires acceptance of all four freedoms. They say that the outcome of the UK referendum "creates a new situation for the European Union. We are determined to remain united ...". They also refers to that many people express dissatisfaction with the current state of affair, be it at the European or national level, and they express their intention to work with EU reforms.</span></span><br />
<br /><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>Separately,</span> <span>leaders of</span> <span>the EU</span> and the member countries have <span>provided more</span> <span class="">different views on the forthcoming negotiations. They also <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2017/02/europe-more-less-or-two-speeds.html">disagree</a> about the EU reforms. This situation indicates that adopting guidelines might be difficult for the European Council, but that the process also can be a catalyst for a much needed EU reform. </span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-14242992704625217282017-02-13T16:05:00.000+01:002017-02-13T16:05:18.677+01:00Europe - more, less or two speeds ?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_il9VWe-Kayzx39Wk83QAVuQTh_fUa5t6hBqSbHGmOUccBKZPvGHQBbfcpIY4HBGwp2_lsq3CnKzogB5E1_EbX-mnuF9y1XvZx3jgBWFCljQOP0hTNIVQREBlx5GSwuNUbUZm_9EEddU/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252854%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_il9VWe-Kayzx39Wk83QAVuQTh_fUa5t6hBqSbHGmOUccBKZPvGHQBbfcpIY4HBGwp2_lsq3CnKzogB5E1_EbX-mnuF9y1XvZx3jgBWFCljQOP0hTNIVQREBlx5GSwuNUbUZm_9EEddU/s400/Skjermbilde+%252854%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
For several years there has been a lot of talks of a Europe with two speeds. The idea is that different parts of the EU should integrate at different levels and pace depending on the political situation in each individul country. A "core Europe" consisting of the most europhile countries could be acting as a front runner.<br />
<br />
And a multispeed Europe is already a reality: EU, EEA, Schengen and the Eurozone all have a different stock of membership countries. A more systematic construction of integration would not represent av novelty, but build on the current situation in Europe.<br />
<br />
There are <a href="http://www.debatingeurope.eu/focus/infobox-arguments-for-and-against-a-two-speed-europe/#.WKF9zn9RLG4">arguments</a> for and against a two-speed Europe. But what should be focused is that the EU represents countries coming together voluntary in a supranational cooperation. They are doing so because they believe this will give them an added value compared to acting alone or cooperate on an intergovernmental basis. To <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">develop</span> <span class="">a union</span> <span class="">with multiple</span> <span class="">speeds</span> <span>is hardly</span> <span class="">the way to go</span><span>.</span> <span>T</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>hen there will be</span> <span>no longer</span> <span>the</span> <span class="">European Union, but the European <i>Unions</i> and </span></span></span><span class="">it will be </span><span class="">hopelessly</span> <span class="">complicated</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span><span> to</span> <span class="">understand and control. The situation to day with a Eurozone-group within the Union is bad enough. </span></span><br />
<br />Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party leader Kaczyński has <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/polands-kaczynski-warns-two-speed-europe-leads-to-breakdown/">warned</a> that any moves toward a two-speed European Union would lead to
the bloc falling apart. According to him a two-speed
Europe would lead to the “breakdown, and in fact the liquidation, of the
European Union in its current sense”. <br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">Kaczyński´s <span>warning</span> <span>should</span> <span class="">not</span> <span class="">be dismissed</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-61347036114954217932017-02-08T11:05:00.000+01:002017-02-08T11:05:37.316+01:00In these times of global tectonic changes ...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJVMGjHFU-hhamgDMF5cTEAJKsAodwTIaPIuJoJXZhwRHWUVfmIiEX1cmkev_Bt61VDnu6YJpvMv3kD6I-L-ays76SG-5nw8vSDyFttnqC7JIoCLGm61b60z8osaYuFeJfQJwi6KH7lN4/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528106%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJVMGjHFU-hhamgDMF5cTEAJKsAodwTIaPIuJoJXZhwRHWUVfmIiEX1cmkev_Bt61VDnu6YJpvMv3kD6I-L-ays76SG-5nw8vSDyFttnqC7JIoCLGm61b60z8osaYuFeJfQJwi6KH7lN4/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528106%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Before the informal Valletta summit on 3 February the 27 heads of state of government received President Tusk´s "United we stand, divided we fall" <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2017/02/tusks-united-we-stand-divided-we-fall.html">letter</a> and also a short "concept paper" to serve as a basis for an open discussion about the future of the EU. The concept paper, drawn up by the European Council Presidency in cooperation with the
Italian Government, warned that the EU was at a historical turning
point, experiencing dramatic challenges both from within and outside:
<em>… </em><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<em></em>externally, globalisation based on
cooperation and competition is giving way to increasing rivalry,
confrontation and even conflict, putting into question the fundamentals
underpinning the rules-based international order. We are also facing
important internal challenges as exemplified by Brexit. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In these times
of global tectonic changes the EU needs strength and determination to
keep unity and to better respond to the expectations of its citizens in
the areas of security, economy and social inclusion. ...</blockquote>
The metaphor <i>tectonic changes </i>is interesting. It <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>refers</span> <span class="">generally</span> <span class="">to movements in the crustal plates - a type of</span> <span>geological</span> <span>forces that</span> <span class="">humans</span> <span class="">can not regulate. But that is a misleading picture. The dramatic challenges "both from within and outside" which the EU experiences today </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>are</span> <span class="">partly</span> <span>consequences</span> <span>of</span> <span>globalisation</span> <span>-</span> <span>a policy</span> <span>the EU</span> <span>has contributed to</span> <span>and</span> <span>which</span> the <span class="">concept</span> <span>paper</span> <span>intends to</span> <span>continue. It´s "more Europe", not the much needed decentralisation, the paper seems to advocate:</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span> </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>... the essence of political consolidation should be the renewal of cooperation within the EU ...</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>...greater unity in foreign policy...</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>...further deepening the Economic and Monetary Union and developing the single market based on our four freedoms...</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>...Europe as an area without internal borders implementing our comprehensive migration policy and increasing internal security... </span></span></blockquote>
With such EU reforms the "tectonic changes" will continue. <br />
<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-4869072062629236362017-02-06T10:44:00.000+01:002017-02-06T11:05:43.079+01:00After Valletta summit - still uncertain EU future<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGq3geS-JVqV1JcUJi3XDbvUhyphenhyphenyODTo-DEY4HB09344Ez6zzVxlhLwxIaHrbdsFadd0WOV1C7WM0i8L7assPFSQzcw3ewAlEj3tN-K55fXIMMusWQlX2M6bN2MAJvoU6pCK2xn6T5cGYo/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528105%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGq3geS-JVqV1JcUJi3XDbvUhyphenhyphenyODTo-DEY4HB09344Ez6zzVxlhLwxIaHrbdsFadd0WOV1C7WM0i8L7assPFSQzcw3ewAlEj3tN-K55fXIMMusWQlX2M6bN2MAJvoU6pCK2xn6T5cGYo/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528105%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
On Friday 3 February, before lunch, 28 heads of government agreed a<span style="font-weight: normal;"> "Malta <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/02/03-malta-declaration/">Declaration</a> by the members of the European
Council on the external aspects of migration: addressing the Central
Mediterranean route</span><span class="label-share margin-right-10">". </span><br />
<div class="span6 content-center specialspan8">
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<div class="share-section padding-bottom-40 margin-y-40">
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<div class="share-section padding-bottom-40 margin-y-40">
<span class="label-share margin-right-10">After lunch President Tusk (also) gave some short <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/02/03-tusk-press-remarks-malta/">remarks</a> about the next part of the programme </span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
After this press
conference, we will meet to discuss the future of the EU as Joseph Muscat has
just mentioned with 27 States and our Rome meeting marking the sixtieth
anniversary of the Treaty of Rome.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
But in fact we have started the
discussion on the future of Europe already during our lunch. The developments on
the international scene remind us of how important a strong EU is. Transatlantic
co-operation remains an absolute priority because it has until now been a key
pillar of the free world. At the same time we know that today we have no other
option than to regain confidence in our own strength.</blockquote>
Officially that is all we know about the afternnoon discussions so far. The media, however, have<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span><span class=""> reported</span> <span class="">about</span> <span class="">uncertainty and disagreement. They can tell that (some) EU leaders are sceptical about PM May´s <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-skeptical-about-theresa-may-atlantic-bridge-donald-trump-brexit/">Atlantic bridge</a> and (some) speek of possible <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20170203-merkel-says-europes-future-could-be-two-speed">multispeed</a> future after Brexit.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">As introduction to the summit Jorge Valero <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/europe-looks-beyond-rome-to-forge-vision-as-disunity-persists/">writes</a> in EurActiv that t</span></span>he 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaty next month is unlikely to be
celebrated with a landmark roadmap for future EU integration, as
diverging views continue to undermine efforts to forge a common vision.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Small countries like Malta, Belgium, Luxembourg and southern EU
member states, including Italy, Portugal and Spain, are the main backers
of the integration process. On the opposite side, Poland, Hungary and
others want to reopen EU treaties to repatriate powers to national
governments. Britain, meanwhile, is on its way out.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In between, the Netherlands and a growing group of countries are
championing a “pragmatic approach”, putting aside “romantic ideas” about
Europe.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
.....</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Support for populists and Eurosceptic parties is picking up steam
ahead of crucial elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany,
throwing EU integration plans to the sidelines.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“This is not the moment for great forward-looking proposals,” a German diplomat said.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Berlin would accept postponing discussions about ‘ever closer union’,
or even the refugee quotas so vigorously opposed by eastern member
states for the sake of unity, he explained.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
...... </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
People familiar with Jean-Claude Juncker’s thinking said the White
Paper the Commission will publish in mid-March as a contribution to the
Rome summit is unlikely to outline an ambitious, clear-cut vision for
the future.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Instead, it will merely outline different scenarios for the future of
Europe. The intention is to avoid polarising national governments that
are reluctant to deepen cooperation in fields such as security,
migration or the economic and monetary union.</blockquote>
If the 27 EU leaders are unable to produce necessary reformes themselves, may be the Brexit negotiations will be helpful. <br />
<br /></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-82828511712967003872017-02-01T10:23:00.001+01:002017-02-01T10:23:16.792+01:00Tusk´s "United we stand, divided we fall" letter <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxSBnzWvjV8WzKBx057cnxWo1EpdwsawDWFb2dOc-Lik4ini_8E5ITKlekFhoVb9BvGdAaS51kM58AINfMCrQKQPAY7Wr82q9DjBaizCw1nNbfghVtVf7Oo1vm9HIH3M90wrnvnwnzKKI/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528104%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxSBnzWvjV8WzKBx057cnxWo1EpdwsawDWFb2dOc-Lik4ini_8E5ITKlekFhoVb9BvGdAaS51kM58AINfMCrQKQPAY7Wr82q9DjBaizCw1nNbfghVtVf7Oo1vm9HIH3M90wrnvnwnzKKI/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528104%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
President Tusk has sent a <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/01/31-tusk-letter-future-europe/">letter</a> to the 27 EU heads of state of government on the future of the EU before the Malta <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2017/01/the-reformation-comes-to-valletta-on-3.html">summit</a> 3 February. Here he uses a phrase attributed to the ancient Greek storyteller Aesop - "United we stand, divided we fall" - to emphasize that "more Europe" is the only way forward. He says that despite problems, the European integration has been a success for nearly 60 years. To day, with a more multipolar world and in competition with several continent states, Europe´s only <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span><span class="">way to</span> <span class="">avoid</span> <span class="">internal</span> <span class="">strife and</span> <span class="">be</span> <span class="">competitive is to integrate further.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">Tusk is right, separated each of the European countries will be weaker than the continent states. And internal strife </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span><span></span><span>will</span> <span>undoubtedly</span> <span class="">blossom. So it is very important that the European cooperation continues.</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">But Tusk is also wrong.The </span></span></span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">integration</span> <span class="">has caused</span> <span class="">much trouble</span> <span>and</span> <span>discontent</span> <span>and </span><span>there is a need</span> <span>for</span> <span class="">radical changes</span></span>. It</span></span></span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span> is very</span> <span>strange</span> <span>that he does not</span> <span></span><span class=""></span>argue for another medicine. The EU m</span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">ember states</span> <span class="">are different,</span> <span>and</span> <span>will</span> <span>in many cases</span> <span class="">be best served by</span> <span class="">formulating</span> <span>their own policies</span><span>.</span> <span class="">But they</span> <span class="">will</span> <span>often</span> <span class="">do better by</span> <span class="">cooperation</span> <span>-</span> <span>sometimes even </span><span class="">supra</span><span>national. Perhaps the pressure </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span><span>to</span> <span>get rid of</span> <span>"An ever closer union"</span> <span>is still not</span> <span>big enough,</span> <span>but the EU</span> <span class="">is unlikely to</span> <span>survive</span> <span>if</span> <span>it does not happen.</span></span><br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-44976047200628388242017-01-30T10:32:00.005+01:002017-01-30T11:37:20.076+01:00The Reformation comes to Valletta on 3 February<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsUqfDOUkd_fIYs8RWvNn_A7eyEZXj2e7Ta3JioGUq-oWzOdpRs6Lij8nZkzdF5i2oAKPlN_ZXneimN8i8EWIF_YhaI2XCrmiwTGf1fOCyHnl2o84GXToMstCsmLqHJ4fU87XOyyut8ZU/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528103%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsUqfDOUkd_fIYs8RWvNn_A7eyEZXj2e7Ta3JioGUq-oWzOdpRs6Lij8nZkzdF5i2oAKPlN_ZXneimN8i8EWIF_YhaI2XCrmiwTGf1fOCyHnl2o84GXToMstCsmLqHJ4fU87XOyyut8ZU/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528103%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The EU is staging a new <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/02/03-informal-meeting/">informal summit</a> on Friday 3 February. 28 heads of state of government will come together in the Maltese capital Valletta. The meeting will consist of two parts. In the morning, the 28 EU heads of state of government will address the external dimension of migration. They are expected to focus their discussions on the Central Mediterranean route and Libya. The UK will then say goodbye, and the afternoon will be an occasion for the remaining 27 leaders to prepare for the upcoming 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties on 25 March 2017.<br />
<br />
The afternoon event will be a continuation of the political reflection on the future of the European Union, which started after the UK Brexit referundum 23 June last year and so far has resulted in the Bratislava <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/future-eu/bratislava-declaration-and-roadmap/">declaration</a>. On 16 September, when the 27 leaders met in Bratislava they ".. committed .. to offer to our citizens in the upcoming
months a vision of an attractive EU they can trust and support." They set out the general principles for action<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
*focusing on citizens' expectations and serving better their need *improving communication and cooperation between member *states delivering on promises and making the EU 27 a success</blockquote>
</blockquote>
Leaders also agreed on the Bratislava <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/future-eu/bratislava-declaration-and-roadmap/">Roadmap</a>, which will guide EU action over the next months. After Malta the 27 leaders will conclude the reflection process in Rome on 25 March 2017, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties.<br />
<br />
With the election of Donald Trump as US President the context of both the migration policy and EU reforms has changed dramatically. And with Brexit uncertainties and forthcoming elections in several European countries this year the EU future seems more unpredictable than ever. <a href="https://euobserver.com/agenda/136715">Andrew Rettmann</a> <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>provides a summary of</span> <span>the situation</span> <span class="">in the EU</span> <span class="">Observer.</span></span><span id="goog_56594246"></span><span id="goog_56594247"></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-67132548259152883952017-01-26T11:52:00.001+01:002017-01-26T11:52:54.096+01:00The Spinning Wheel of Nationalism-Globalism<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX_m3RshfOvtHms8CjBot5u6JxWOVJAHUI9AMJcnTgp1dbo-H1gT10Iu4saZskqaDZi-fjTnEnRDbWNS297x2Sf6SQrYHNrjfdutuJGTao3MbWLh9FAGZjtax5mRMnVSYZ_K9Xy5662ks/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528102%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX_m3RshfOvtHms8CjBot5u6JxWOVJAHUI9AMJcnTgp1dbo-H1gT10Iu4saZskqaDZi-fjTnEnRDbWNS297x2Sf6SQrYHNrjfdutuJGTao3MbWLh9FAGZjtax5mRMnVSYZ_K9Xy5662ks/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528102%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
After years with escalating globalism the nationalists <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>managed to</span> <span class="">win two</span> <span class="">important games</span> <span class="">in 2016. Brexit and Trump. U</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">sed to sailing</span> <span>downwind</span> <span>the </span><span class="">globalists</span> have got a <span class="">powerful</span> <span class="">headwind. How do they handle it ?</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">Afraid of a nationalist Geert Wilder victory in the forthcoming Dutch elections globalist Dutch PM Rutte <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/gloves-off-between-rutte-and-schulz-in-front-of-davos-elite/">took the gloves off</a> and preached a more "populist" view in front of the Davos elite. In a clash with </span></span>former European Parliament President and hardcore globalist Martin Schulz he advocated a pragmatic approach and to stop lofty speeches. Rutte called for tangible results on migration, security or the
internal market in the effort to create jobs. He even went as far to say that the ‘ever closer union’ principle is “buried and gone”. Schultz counterattacked by praising the achievements of the past and the need to push forward EU integration. So while some hope and believe Brexit and Trump will unite the 27 remaining EU member countries further, a more divided Union is perhaps more likely.<br />
<br />
And in the UK globalist and Brexit conductor May is leaving 10 Downing Street for talks with nationalist President Trump. The Prime Minister will also <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/25/theresa-may-america-britain-will-lead-together-brexit-election/">address</a> the annual congressional Republican
Retreat in Philadelphia and say that the UK and USA will “renew the
special relationship” now that President Trump is in the White House. <span class="m_first-letter">I</span>n her speech, Mrs May will compare
President Trump’s election to the Brexit referendum, making clear that
both votes represent a chance to “renew” America and Britain. May is also expected to say that “.. as we rediscover our confidence together, as you renew your nation
just as we renew ours, we have the opportunity – indeed the
responsibility – to renew the special relationship for this new age. We
have the opportunity to lead, together, again.”<br />
<br />
The clashes between the nationalists and globalists will continue and might be tougher than they are today. But hopefully the spinning wheel of dialogue and combat will <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>unite the </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">threads in</span></span></span> <span>a fruitful</span> <span>compromise.</span><span class=""></span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-68027738553766876772017-01-19T11:15:00.002+01:002017-01-19T11:15:48.537+01:00PM May´s Brexit speech<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEher1R39zWZ8Y-NWbiHqWq8GYuaiSMeyljdra3YRLAN39GL1skDns22J_xyB207iDopax4gAFU0XaCKhfRW0sYhDeRVINJmCfR1e-NzVGKkC3-IrcMbTC1tY9BG8k-RK06uZkNnG2BRagI/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528101%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEher1R39zWZ8Y-NWbiHqWq8GYuaiSMeyljdra3YRLAN39GL1skDns22J_xyB207iDopax4gAFU0XaCKhfRW0sYhDeRVINJmCfR1e-NzVGKkC3-IrcMbTC1tY9BG8k-RK06uZkNnG2BRagI/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528101%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
PM May had chosen Lancaster House as the venue for her Brexit speech two days ago. It is an historic building, <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>which has been used</span> <span class="">in</span> <span class="">many</span> <span class="">important occasions. </span></span>The European Advisory Commission had its seat there, and started its work on 14 January 1944. This commission, with participation from the UK, the US and the Sovjet Union, was to study the postwar political problems in Europe and make recommendations to the three governments. The recommendations of the EAC shaped the development of postwar Europe. And in 1988 PM Thatcher held her "Europe Open for Business" speech there, extolling the virtues of the Single Market.<br />
<br />
Now May will have a Brexit which takes the UK out of the Single Market. She will instead negotiate a trade agreement. And if she not can get a good agreement, <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>she will</span> <span>leave the EU</span> <span>without</span> <span class="">an agreement. This is PM May´s master plan for Brexit. The EU says this was expected and that the negotiations will be very, very, very difficult.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">And there is no doubt that the negotiations will be difficult. Very much is at stake. But there seems to be a broad understanding that the process must go on and that the </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span><span>goal</span> <span>must</span> <span>be to achieve</span> <span>a solution</span> <span class="">which benefits both the UK and the EU. This is about a reshaping of Europe. The </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span> <span class="">EU</span> <span class="">cooperation</span> <span>will only</span> <span class="">survive</span> <span>if</span> <span class="">the member states</span> <span>and their citizens</span> <span class="">see it as</span> <span class="">positive. The EU must give added value - </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">otherwise it is</span> <span class="">doomed to fail.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-91606440428722437182017-01-16T12:24:00.000+01:002017-01-16T12:24:40.411+01:00Paris Mideast conference not very successful for peace - but perhaps helpful for French Socialist Party<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC-JITHC3gFyS5CjVfNpDIYk5owQcfC0K0KsmIcToOkrdr_jpB8-nxMxjMvYBvUM3nH-S2z0yTcifCyvLKpL0IAQIQM1XptzqPCxm8Ov_FeZaYCg0QiLrVkFn4Tgt_x5vbZ-M4mfhZ0k4/s1600/Skjermbilde+%2528100%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC-JITHC3gFyS5CjVfNpDIYk5owQcfC0K0KsmIcToOkrdr_jpB8-nxMxjMvYBvUM3nH-S2z0yTcifCyvLKpL0IAQIQM1XptzqPCxm8Ov_FeZaYCg0QiLrVkFn4Tgt_x5vbZ-M4mfhZ0k4/s400/Skjermbilde+%2528100%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
A year ago, in January 2016, France <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2016/02/hollande-pushes-for-new-israel.html">announced</a> its intensions to push for new negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel, and in June the country <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/03/middle-east-peace-talks-paris-israel-palestinians-john-kerry-ban-ki-moon">hosted</a> diplomats from the west and the Arab world to work on organising a peace
conference by the end of the year that would launch long-dormant
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.<br />
<br />
The peace conference was held in Paris yesterday, with participation from around 70 countries and organisations. But neither Israel or the Palestinians were present. <br />
<br />
The conference is <a href="http://en.rfi.fr/middle-east/20170114-paris-middle-east-peace-conference-goes-ahead-despite-israeli-opposition">widely seen</a> as a last-ditch attempt to save the two-state solution ahead of Donald Trump's investiture as US president. Dispite a joint declaration which reaffirmed that a negotiated solution with two states, Israel and
Palestine, living side by side in peace and security, is the only way to
achieve enduring peace, <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>the initiative will</span> <span>hardly</span> <span>stimulate</span> <span class="">the peace process. </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>For example</span> <span>the requirement that</span> <span>Israel</span> <span class="">should <a href="http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/israel-palestinian-territories/peace-process/initiative-for-the-middle-east-peace-process/article/conference-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-15-01-17">fully end</a></span></span> end the occupation that began in 1967 seems unrealistic. UK did not back the communique and also the Australian government has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-16/australia-distances-itself-from-middle-east-peace-conclusion/8184318">distanced itself</a> from the concluding statement. The statement might be<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""> the basis</span> <span>for</span> <span>a UN</span> <span>resolution</span> <span>this week,</span> <span>without the</span> <span>hope of</span> <span>peace</span> <span>thus</span> <span class="">become larger.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">Perhaps the conference will be of greater importance for the organizer. With a Muslim share of 8 % of France´s population, yesterdays event and a possible UN resolution can be helpful for the Socialist Party in the forthcoming presidential election.</span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-17711145010809823152017-01-09T11:56:00.000+01:002017-01-09T11:56:36.594+01:00Can Brexit be a Win Win ?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE5T4yJps9F389KrjjFTSe7GsC2xsO0Phuxb8KXnSdUS-DaNZkw14ryqYrZaI-wMAgPPMu85OouJbkzVPqheTW7vi0nJS1y9bxLjskqamZ6NptcvdCx7I_UCZCRtvd84aN7T6l9H9ci2Y/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252899%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE5T4yJps9F389KrjjFTSe7GsC2xsO0Phuxb8KXnSdUS-DaNZkw14ryqYrZaI-wMAgPPMu85OouJbkzVPqheTW7vi0nJS1y9bxLjskqamZ6NptcvdCx7I_UCZCRtvd84aN7T6l9H9ci2Y/s400/Skjermbilde+%252899%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Later this month PM May will give a speach about Brexit, and present more information about what kind of Brexit the UK will head for. Until then the public will have to speculate and guess.<br />
<br />
The signals so far indicate that May thinks it is possible for the UK to get a relationship with the EU which makes it possible for the country to control immigration and have sufficient access to the Single Market. Many disagree with such an optimistic view and believe that UK will have to choose. <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>It</span> <span>is probably</span> <span>impossible to say</span> <span>who is right</span> <span>before</span> <span>it</span> <span>is</span> <span class="">negotiated.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">Some believe that</span> <span class="">the EU</span> <span class="">will "punish</span>" <span class="">the UK</span><span class="">, so that other</span> <span>member states</span> <span>are not</span> <span class="">tempted to</span> <span>withdraw</span><span>. But that is a </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span><span>short-sighted</span> <span class="">analysis. For the EU </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">to</span> <span class="">be</span> <span class="">meaningful</span> the <span class="">member states must</span> <span>thrive</span> <span>and</span> <span>feel</span> <span>that participation</span> <span>in</span> <span class="">the Union</span> <span class="">is</span> <span class="">something positive.</span> </span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>The</span> <span>membership shall</span> <span>not</span> <span>be a burden</span> <span class="">and</span> <span class="">straitjacket</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">. </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">If</span> <span class="">a country</span> <span>wants</span> <span>another</span> <span>form of </span>relationship <span>than</span> <span>membership</span><span>,</span> <span class="">the EU should</span> <span class="">be flexible. The EU</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span> <span>must</span> <span class="">develop its </span><span>organization and</span> <span>policies</span> <span>so that</span> <span>the Union</span> <span>is perceived</span> <span class="">as a positive</span> <span>and</span> <span>necessary complement to the</span> <span class="">nation states of Europe - not as a supranational unit for big government.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">The EEA agreement is an example of how countries which do not want a EU membership can interact with the Union. The relationship is not perpect. Far from. B</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">ut in spite</span> <span>of the shortcomings</span><span>, it has been</span> <span>useful for </span>the <span>participants. </span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>So </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span title="så det er fullt mulig å tenke seg en Brexit avtale som er positiv for UK og samtidig for EU - fordi den viser at Unionen kan tilpasse seg konstruktivt når et land mener at medlemskap ikke gir added value">it is quite possible to imagine a Brexit agreement which is positive
for the UK and also for the EU - if it shows that the Union can
adapt constructively when a country thinks that membership does not
provide added value.</span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-48392933722618189272016-12-31T12:40:00.004+01:002016-12-31T12:40:48.495+01:00Drivers of change<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8lmbmDtNsLz_kK_H5Zppz0L3MuNJ-UG5OBKhqkcY_K28M0En1Ee5eFIcjbff1IkaikwH7YDi55ugDv2o0I9-mY9ZT8khAU2zcyOe8k8U8p4Smiuus8w9CE0axTu_I7URmQRI1HTRtJmg/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252898%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8lmbmDtNsLz_kK_H5Zppz0L3MuNJ-UG5OBKhqkcY_K28M0En1Ee5eFIcjbff1IkaikwH7YDi55ugDv2o0I9-mY9ZT8khAU2zcyOe8k8U8p4Smiuus8w9CE0axTu_I7URmQRI1HTRtJmg/s400/Skjermbilde+%252898%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
During 2016 the pressure for EU reforms has deepened, which has been <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span><span>clearly</span> <span>expressed</span> <span>by</span> referendum<span>s</span> <span class="">in several European countries. But the big picture is unclear. </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">There is widespread</span> <span class="">dissatisfaction</span> <span class="">with the Union</span> <span class="">while</span> t</span>he majority of EU voters <a href="https://euobserver.com/tickers/136421">do not</a> want to follow the UK into leaving the bloc.<br />
<br />
The situation seems to be that the European Union still stands firm, but changes will come. Decentralization is a keyword. Equally as important is the content of the politics - whether it is produced by the EU or the Member States. The Scottish historian Niall Ferguson has some interesting reflections in an interview with <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Features/Interview/Expect-revolution-in-US-foreign-policy-under-Trump?page=2">Nikkei Asian Review</a> .<br />
<br />
The frame for the interview is what to expect from US foreign policy under a Trump administration, and Ferguson draws attention to the change drivers behind Brexit and Trumps victory.<br />
<br />
The first question for Furguson is about the main driver behind the Trump phenomen. He answears that many people have jumped to the conclusion that populism is mainly about
economics because populists focus on immigration, free trade and other
similar issues.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
But there is a very noneconomic cultural component to
it. Part of what people are reacting against is not just globalization
but multiculturalism and a whole range of other ideas.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The cultural aspects are more important. What makes Trump popular and what
made Brexit happen is a cultural backlash which has to do with
immigration, but not only with immigration. It actually has to do with a
whole complex of liberal ideas that members of the elite really like,
cosmopolitan ideas about cultural relativism, feminism, all kinds of
different liberal ideas that are profoundly unappealing to middle
America, middle England, to people who perhaps didn't go to elite
institutions to study and therefore don't feel the same enthusiasm for
these ideas.</blockquote>
After being invited to expand on multiculturalism he says<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If one looks at polling data in the U.K and the U.S., it's
very striking how populist voters, people who voted for Brexit or voted
for Trump, expressed their dissatisfaction. It isn't just about
employment. It isn't just about the economy generally. It's about the
perception that, for example, policy has gone too far in giving
advantages to minorities. It's about the sense of estrangement between
middle America and the elite sissies on the coasts.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I
cite often Charles Murray's book "Coming Apart." He argued there was a
profound social polarization in America between elite, highly educated
groups and a white working-class that felt not just economically but
culturally alienated from the Obama presidency. And I think those issues
can't be simplified with terms like racism. The reason the slogan "Make
America Great Again" resonated with so many people was that they felt
America had, in some measure, changed to their disadvantage. The Trump
victory represented a relatively spontaneous backlash against this
politically correct culture. ........</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In many ways, Brexit and Trump were, in fact, improvements
on a status quo that was failing. Clearly, things have to change in
Europe. The Monetary Union has been a failure. One can't simply carry on
pretending that it works, because the result is a permanent economic
slump in southern Europe. The migration policy has been a disaster. They
can't simply have open borders around the Mediterranean. So those
things need to be changed. And I think Brexit may have sent the first of
a series of signals to Europe's leaders to change their ways.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In
history, nothing lasts forever. And the ideas and institutions of the
Cold War have had a remarkably long life, considering that the Cold War
ended 25 years ago. We probably need some new ideas at this point. So I
think populism is, for all its kind of crudity and vulgarity, it's a
healthy challenge to a status quo that was failing.</blockquote>
Will the EU <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span><span class="">be</span> <span class="">able to</span> <span class="">identify and manage</span> <span class="">the</span> <span>change drivers</span> <span>Ferguson</span> <span class="">describes</span><span>,</span> <span class="">or</span> <span class="">is</span> <span class="">the Brussels</span>-<span class="">culture</span> <span class="">unable</span> <span class="">to perceive</span> <span class=""></span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>and</span> <span>take account of</span> <span>strong</span> <span>signals</span> <span class="">from </span></span></span><span class="">alienated voters ? </span></span> <br />
<br />
<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-42867597323862216912016-12-22T11:49:00.000+01:002016-12-22T11:49:19.617+01:00Consequences of the Netherlands-EU deal on Ukraine<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitcvL5SqelEmOMCNqHitBSat-p_J6fF6mEsqpis29aT9IuBMPnXLcox58IYXjFuPPpSQkLNrA8vI5CQ_6rNqk4lCJJ_hWO0XGz6Am_OtfpXm1292eLp61n9MO0ITAUcxSbw0AVXFjCNZQ/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252897%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitcvL5SqelEmOMCNqHitBSat-p_J6fF6mEsqpis29aT9IuBMPnXLcox58IYXjFuPPpSQkLNrA8vI5CQ_6rNqk4lCJJ_hWO0XGz6Am_OtfpXm1292eLp61n9MO0ITAUcxSbw0AVXFjCNZQ/s400/Skjermbilde+%252897%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
On 6 April 2016 Dutch citizens for the first time tested their new "direct democracy" tool - a referendum possibility on legislative decisions if more than 300 000 signatures of supporters are gained.<br />
<br />
The background for the referendum on 6 April was partly <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">the </span><span class=""></span><span class="">general</span> <span class="">dissatisfaction</span> <span>with the EU</span> <span>and more specifically</span> <span class="">the ratification of</span> <span class="">the</span> <span class="">EU</span><span class="">-Ukraine</span> <span>agreement</span><span>.</span> V<span>oters</span> <span>should</span> <span>answer</span> <span>the question: </span></span>"Do you support or oppose the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement?"<br />
<br />
Before the referendum the Dutch government argued strongly for a "yes", but the result was that 61% of the voters said "no" to the ratification. Even if the referendum is "advisory" and not legally binding, the result represented a problem for the Dutch government. And for the EU. If the Netherlands said "no" to ratification, it would stop a process which the 27 other member states (and the Dutch government, the Ukraine and the US) wanted to continue. And if the Netherlands said "yes", it would be another example of how the EU circumvents and neglects undesired referendum results.<br />
<br />
8 months after the referendum <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span></span><span>the Dutch government</span> <span class="">and the EU</span> have now<span class=""></span> <span>agreed</span> <span class="">how</span> <span class="">this</span> <span class="">can be handled. The solution is a deal - <a href="file:///C:/Users/eier/AppData/Local/Temp/15-euco-conclusions-ukraine.pdf">adopted</a> by the European Council 15 December 2016 - which supplies the EU-Ukraine Agreement with a supplementary addressing "..the concerns expressed prior to the referendum ..". Dutch PM Rutte has said he is uncertain if the deal will secure a ratification from the Dutch parliament. </span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">It is difficult to predict how the Dutch referendum and the Netherlands-EU deal will affect European politics. May be the deal will be accepted by the Dutch parliament as a reasonable compromise. But there is absolutely a possibility that Geert Wilders and eurosceptics can capitalize on it in the forthcoming general elections in the Netherlands. And also in other countries the handling of the Dutch referendum will be followed with great interest.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""> </span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-44199181193080993812016-12-15T10:43:00.001+01:002016-12-15T10:43:51.894+01:00Brexit can help EU survive<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
Next year the EU will celebrate it´s 60th anniversary. But the jubilee is not in a good shape. Some - like Mr Nigel Farage - believe it is terminally ill. Others say that a collaps is possible.<br />
<br />
Last week Nobel economic prize winner Oliver Hart <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/economic-nobel-prize-winner-the-euro-was-a-mistake/">told</a> spanish news agency EFE that he believes the keyword in EU politics is now
“decentralisation” and that Brussels has “gone too far in centralising
power”. The British-born economist said that “if it abandons this trend,
the EU could survive and flourish, otherwise, it could fail”.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Harvard University professor insisted that the EU member states
are not “sufficiently homogeneous” to be considered one single entity,
adding that trying to make the EU-28 into one was an “error”.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Hart said that the concerns felt by the member states about decision
making and centralisation of power in Brussels should be addressed by
returning competences to the EU capitals. The Nobel winner conceded that the EU should retain control of “some
important areas”, like free trade and free movement of workers, the
latter of which he admitted is “ultimately, an idea that I personally
like, although I understand that there are political worries”.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Hart´s Nobel economic prize-winning colleague, Bengt Holmström, also told EFE that the EU
needs to “redefine its priorities, limiting its activities and its
regulatory arm, in order to focus on what can be done on the essential
things”.</blockquote>
While Hart´s and Holmstrøm´s critisism <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span><span></span> <span>seems to</span> <span>hitting the target</span><span> - and the EU <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2016/09/bratilslava-summit-more-than-nice-boat.html">admits</a> that it is necessary to be clear about what the Union can do and what is for the Member States to do, the EU is</span> <span>still</span> <span>dominated by</span> <span>a strong tendency to always call for </span><i><span class="">more</span> <span>Europe. </span></i><span>It seems like it is impossible for the EU to follow the principle of subsidiarity. Brexit </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><i><span class="">forces</span></i>, <span class="">however,</span> <span class="">the EU</span> <span class="">to think differently. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">A Member State </span><span class="">leaving</span> <span>the union is</span> a <span>completely new situation</span> <span>for</span> <span>the</span> <span>EU.</span> <span>Article 50</span> <span>was</span> <span class="">never</span> <span>intended to be used</span><span>.</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""> Now</span><span class="">, both the</span> <span>UK</span> <span>and</span> <span>EU</span> <span>must prepare</span> <span>their divorce</span> <span class="">thoroughly.</span></span> <span>Both</span> <span>parties will benefit from</span> <span>finding</span> <span>mutually satisfactory</span> <span>solutions</span><span>.</span> <span>Depending on what kind of future relationship UK and EU will negotiate, the agreement might serve as a model also for other Member States which to day are not comfortable within the Union. If the UK (and the EU) should choose to go for an EEA like solution, transitional or permanent, such an arrangement might later represent an option for e.g. Greece, with their economic Euro burdens. </span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-62653016613390043092016-12-05T13:14:00.001+01:002016-12-05T13:14:53.701+01:00The European melting pot<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVHnaMrVekm8GhYYMR5Atv4clqkoKkYfSsQwGVVbsKltnoArO6-Y9TvmlAPLryJ5-zmyW4BCv71qtb8k89oT-Ko1tYgUy_AmZIqWqAbuW4XFn0XclAEPinUqQmV8hkELcBQYOkBxJPh7A/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252893%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVHnaMrVekm8GhYYMR5Atv4clqkoKkYfSsQwGVVbsKltnoArO6-Y9TvmlAPLryJ5-zmyW4BCv71qtb8k89oT-Ko1tYgUy_AmZIqWqAbuW4XFn0XclAEPinUqQmV8hkELcBQYOkBxJPh7A/s400/Skjermbilde+%252893%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The European 2016 drama continues. A few days ago Mr Hollande - suffering from historically low popularity ratings - announced that he will not run for re-election as French precident in 2017, and yesterday PM Renzi said also he was heading for the exit after suffering a major blow in the Italian constitutional referendum.<br />
<br />
While there are additional explanations and differences between France and Italy, <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">it is tempting to</span> <span>see</span> <span>the fate of</span> <span>Hollande</span> <span>and</span> <span>Renzi</span> <span>as an expression of</span> <span class="">people's</span><span></span> <span>dissatisfaction</span> <span>with</span> <span>their handling</span> <span>of Europe's</span> <span>economic</span><span>,</span> <span>migration</span> <span>and</span> <span>security</span> <span>crises</span><span>. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">Earlier</span> <span>in 2016</span> <span>also</span> <span>people in other countries</span> <span>have objected strongly to</span> <span>European politics</span> <span>-</span> <span>as</span> <span class="">the Dutch Ukrain-European Union Association Agreement referendum, which the government lost, and of course the Brexit referendum in the UK.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">There is of course an interaction between the political develpment in the EU member countries and what happens at the European level. The Delors era with a strong supranational Commission seems far away. To day the European Council - the member states institutional channel - occupy the drivers seat. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">And on a global level Mr Trump´s election victory represents a change in the context of European politics. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">In total the European melting pot has many ingredients and it is difficult to predict results of the mix. Some think the EU itself will collapse. But the Union is a strong construction, and a more likely development is policychanges and institutional reforms - hopefully with more democracy and better distribution of responsibilities between national and supranational level.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-9956956215642401842016-11-28T13:58:00.000+01:002016-11-28T13:58:57.075+01:00EEA - from Brexit option to Brexit obligation ?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik1y2_cF0bh79HQGBrq38sxg1hgmTuoqX2AaB_y2un6sbr7DuRVKSP_4ipuRubVrLjUJGwZNsCCsauuJEnJEwVHN-DxMxmXS6mopaXAtbfaqTi6p2TAVmklD8BuSK3tCIZVnDvndAdkvc/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252892%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik1y2_cF0bh79HQGBrq38sxg1hgmTuoqX2AaB_y2un6sbr7DuRVKSP_4ipuRubVrLjUJGwZNsCCsauuJEnJEwVHN-DxMxmXS6mopaXAtbfaqTi6p2TAVmklD8BuSK3tCIZVnDvndAdkvc/s400/Skjermbilde+%252892%2529.png" width="387" /></a></div>
<br />
EEA - Europoean Economic Area - is one of the Brexit options that have been discussed. The UK participates in the EEA to day, and could possibly continue as a (new) EFTA country or perhaps even as a "third" country without being an EU- or EFTA-member. Because of the 2 years limit for negotiations following a triggering of Article 50, EEA membership has been advocated as a practical transitional Brexit solution until UK and EU have negotiated a more permanent relationship.<br />
<br />
Now the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38126899">media</a> can tell that the government is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU. A British think tank argues that the UK will not leave the EEA - which provide the members access to the single market - automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide. They are writing to Brexit Seretary David Davis to inform him that it will seek a formal judicial review of the government's position. The group warned that if the government did not get a clear legal opinion it could potentially end up acting outside the law.<br />
<br />
It had been assumed that when Britain leaves the EU it would automatically leave the EEA as well.<br />
But
some lawyers argue that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and
would happen only if Britain formally withdraws by triggering Article
127 of the EEA agreement. The legal question is focused on whether the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right or because it is a member of the EU.<br />
<br />
In a situation where the government <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en">either has no Brexit-plan or will not divulge what <span class="">it is about, the remainers and the soft-Brexiters are creative </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en" tabindex="-1"> in <span class="">finding opportunities</span> to <span class="">derail</span> <span class="">or slow</span> <span class="">the Brexit</span> <span class="">process.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en" tabindex="-1"><span class="">Norway</span><span>,</span> <span>Iceland</span> <span class="">and</span> <span class="">Lichtenstein</span> <span>have as EU non-member countries for</span> <span>more than</span> <span>20</span> <span>years</span> <span>had</span> <span>access</span> <span class="">to the</span> <span class="">single</span> <span class="">market</span> <span>through the</span> <span>EEA</span> <span>Agreement.</span> <span>Because of</span> <span>political and</span> <span>legal obstacles to</span> <span>a quick</span> <span>Brexit</span> <span>process</span><span>,</span> <span>it appears</span> <span>that</span> <span>the three countries</span> <span>now can</span> <span class="">be joined by</span> <span>the UK - </span><span>for</span> <span>a period</span> <span>or</span> ultimately <span>more permanent</span><span>.</span> <span></span><span></span><span></span><span></span><span></span></span><br />
<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-55962853766121478122016-11-24T11:56:00.001+01:002016-11-24T11:56:55.897+01:00Does PM May have a Brexit fallback plan ?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8JU73OQSD1mlz2uQSeEjXq7Zwdxkv7cyfh2T6LBCo6-4mZZBgJwXcA6OdLl-rPoOFfrSuFZsBWapJPcfZO8cjxq2UD19w8AEwDqiztSFQmFepjytlP0B1VGnlbaTm-XoDBGZjphGpi-k/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252891%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8JU73OQSD1mlz2uQSeEjXq7Zwdxkv7cyfh2T6LBCo6-4mZZBgJwXcA6OdLl-rPoOFfrSuFZsBWapJPcfZO8cjxq2UD19w8AEwDqiztSFQmFepjytlP0B1VGnlbaTm-XoDBGZjphGpi-k/s400/Skjermbilde+%252891%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
About two months ago PM May told the Tory Party conference that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. That gave her half a year for preparations. To day, with only four months left, her preferred Brexit solution is still unknown.<br />
<br />
The Brexit process is a very complicated political project. That applies to the UK, but also for the EU. In the UK there are hard and soft Brexiters, remainers trying to derail the process and have another referendum and in October a high court ruling (which the government has appealed) said the parliament must vote on the decision. Still the government claims the Brexit process is on the track and will not be delayed. <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>It may seem</span> <span>implausible</span><span>,</span> <span>but can </span><span class="">be realistic if the government has agreed on a fallback.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">A Brexit fallback plan</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span> <span>would</span> <span>be a form of</span> <span>emergency solution</span> <span>-</span> <span>a compromise</span> <span>that respects</span> <span class="">the referendum</span> <span>and</span> <span>can be accepted</span> <span>by a</span> <span>sufficiently</span> <span>broad political</span> <span>majority. T</span></span></span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>here are</span> <span>now</span> <span>signs that</span> <span>such a plan</span> <span class="">actually exists</span> <span class="">and</span> <span class="">is being developed. The most important is that PM May a few days ago told a business conference that she wants to avoid a "cliff edge" after Brexit. According to several newspapers she <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/21/theresa-may-cbi-corporation-tax-brexit-live/">indicated</a> she therefore first would try to get a transitional Brexit deal. Such a solution would give the UK (and the EU) more time to develop the UK-EU relations.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">How would a transitional Brexit look like? To avoid a "cliff edge", a soft Brexit seems most likely. The obvious scheme would be to "switch" from EU membership to a EFTA- and EEA participation ("Norway-option"). But even if this solution - which </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span><span class="">economically</span> <span class="">has worked well</span> <span class="">for</span> <span class="">the EU and the EFTA</span> <span class="">/</span> <span class="">EEA countries - </span></span>might be possible to achieve within the negotiation period after triggering Article 50, both the UK, the EU and the EFTA members will face challenges. But all Brexit alternatives represent difficulties, and with only four months left before end of March PM May have to decide soon.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""> </span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-48620677806270245862016-11-16T12:15:00.000+01:002016-11-16T12:15:37.415+01:00Brexit clues appear<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
The struggle between Brexiters - hard and soft - and Remainers continues. No path is presented and a leaked <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3940272/Boost-free-movement-Merkel-hints-new-migration-limit-Boris-savages-EU-s-open-borders.html">memo</a> from Deloitte suggests the Government still has no plan for Brexit.<br />
<br />
But some important clues of a possible Brexit solution seem to appear now. And they are not surprising.<br />
<br />
Yesterday UK Foreign secretary Boris Johnson said in an interview with the Czech newspaper Hospodárské that Britain would like to keep access to the single market while clamping down on migration. He also speculated Britain would have to leave the EU´s custom union, in which members agree to impose common tariffs on countries outside the group, so it could strike its own trade deals. Mr Johnson also said that there will be a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/16/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-pmqs-brexit-angela-merkel-live/">dynamic</a> trade relationship between the the UK and the EU.<br />
<br />
Mr Johnson´s statements indicate an EEA-like Brexit solution for the UK. A central feature of the EEA is its dynamic aspect, the common rules of the agreement are updated continuously with new EU legislation; a customs union is not covered and there are safeguard measures giving the members possibilities for <a href="http://s-t-a-r-r-ydays.blogspot.no/2016/07/an-eea-kind-of-brexit.html">opt outs</a> from the four freedoms.<br />
<br />
Chancellor Merkel has just said that an improved offer to the UK on migration could be forthcoming - a statement which in reality perhaps is just a recognition of the opt out possibilities of an EEA solution.<br />
<br />
Speaking to the BBC´s Newsnight, Dutch finance minister and president of the eurozone´s Eurogroup, Dijsselbloem, yesterday <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37995606">said</a> Mr Johnson was putting forward options that "are really not available".<br />
<br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">There</span> <span class="">are</span> <span>many</span> <span>different</span> <span>statements</span> <span>in the</span> <span>pre</span><span>-negotiation</span> <span>period</span><span>,</span> <span>and</span> <span>one</span> <span>can not</span> <span class="">know</span> <span>for</span> <span>certain</span> <span>what</span> <span>will be </span><span></span><span>UK's</span> <span>preferred</span> <span>Brexit</span> <span>solution</span><span>.</span> <span>But the</span> <span>EEA</span> <span>agreement</span> <span>seems to represent </span><span>a</span> <span>realistic</span><span> </span><span>starting point</span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-428638835738635931.post-75478754497949695212016-11-09T14:34:00.000+01:002016-11-09T14:34:58.480+01:00A Brexit-teammate in the USA<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvBI0xjtYriKXhkjYsNFmlSk8vNmGGk5Q74bNVVO30RvqvFS51auJa4rjB8_W2gpS73STGuQRwf2I5gJM0kb0_8i7pVIlRLb_3sz6pj35tur2rhKCOeEiL7V23E0fXwkce-AC8FmF7v0/s1600/Skjermbilde+%252888%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvBI0xjtYriKXhkjYsNFmlSk8vNmGGk5Q74bNVVO30RvqvFS51auJa4rjB8_W2gpS73STGuQRwf2I5gJM0kb0_8i7pVIlRLb_3sz6pj35tur2rhKCOeEiL7V23E0fXwkce-AC8FmF7v0/s400/Skjermbilde+%252888%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The Brexiters have now got a valueable teammate. Donald Trump´s victory shows that the opposition to unrestrained globalisation and integration is a worldwide phenomen.<br />
<br />
Still shocked by the result, many politicians and commentators try to understand what Trump has called a "Brexit plus-plus-plus". - The polls showed a Clinton win, why could not anyone predict a loss ? The answer is very simple. Media were in reality part of the Clinton campaign, and <span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>clear <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/">notices</a></span> <span>of a</span> <span>Trump</span> <span>victory</span> <span class="">were ignored. LA Times/USC Tracking </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>had shown<span id="goog_1070927224"></span><span id="goog_1070927225"></span></span> Trump <span>victory</span> <span>almost daily</span> <span>for several</span> <span>months</span><span class="">. And in the weeks before the election the IBD/TIPP Tracking - the most reliable pollster in the recent presidential elections - predicted close race or a Trump win.</span></span><br />
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""><br /></span></span>
<span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class="">The international "Brexit cooperation" </span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span>is</span> <span>naturally</span> <span class="">in the early stages, but to day UKIP´s Nigel Farage <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3916422/I-want-Trump-s-ambassador-EU-Nigel-Farage-says-accept-job-Donald-wins-election-s-booked-flight.html">flies</a> to America in a bid to be Donald Trump´s ambassador to the EU.</span></span><span class="" id="result_box" lang="en"><span class=""></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0