Brexit - both EU and UK are discussing how to proceed

How to proceed in the Brexit preparations is not easy to determine for the UK nor for the EU.

When Chancellor Merkel met with the Visegrad group in Poland on Friday, she told the press that Brexit should give impetus to reform, calling it a “turning point in the history of European integration”. But there is so far no consensus on what should be the future direction for the Union.  France, Italy and Germany argued for more Europe after the Ventotene meeting . The leaders from Poland, Hungary, Czeck Republic and Slovakia (Visegrad group) agreed on Friday that there is a need to strengthen security (more Europe), but otherwise they spoke for less Europe and eurosceptisism.

The EU leaders are also unsure on what kind of strategy they should follow in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations with the UK. German economy minister Sigmar Gabriel said on Sunday that UK must pay for Brexit or EU is "in deep trouble". Britain must not be allowed to “keep the nice things” that come with EU membership without taking responsibility for the fallout from Brexit. Gabriel warned if the issue was badly handled and other member countries followed Britain’s lead, Europe would go “down the drain”.

In UK it is not clarified what kind of Brexit - i e the future relationship between UK and the EU - they want (WHO solution, bilateral trade agreement or EEA Agreement). It is important for UK to control the immigration, and the strategy must give the country enough freedom on this issue. PM Theresa May has called a cabinet meeting to discuss the Brexit strategy on Wednesday. Media have reported that there is a government split over whether or not the UK government should try to retain its membership of the single market. 

There is little reason to be surprised that both the EU and the UK are struggling with implementation of Brexit. That a major member country choose to leave the Union is something new and untested.  To find solutions which are satisfactory for both parties will therefore require a Brexit battle with good contacts and cooperation across the frontline.

 
 

No common vision for a reformed EU

The Ventotene meeting on 22 August between PM Renzi, Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande did not produce any surprises. They said afterwards that Brexit will not finish the EU and the medicine for the Union will still be more Europe (security, defence, investment and measures for youth education and jobs) with a little bit of less Europe (greater flexibility on EU deficit rules) added.

In Prague yesterday Merkel repeated that  the Bratislava summit of the 27 EU leaders (UK not invited) on 16 September should focus on job creation for the young and reinforcing security in Europe. Several hundred protesters rallied in the Czech capital against Merkel and her decision a year ago to open the country doors to asylum seekers.

To day Merkel will meet the Visegrad countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) in Poland. These member states want to slow down the integration speed, and migration policy will top the agenda. Later on Friday, Merkel will meet in Germany with a mostly Nordic group of EU countries, and she will, the same day, also host separate talks with leaders from Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia.

Merkels tour is part of her new attempt to be seen as a "listener" and to dispel the image of Berlin trying to impose politics on the rest of the block. 

President Hollande is also eager in his preparations for the Bratislva summit. At a meeting of socialist leaders in France yesterday he made an impassioned plea for Europe against populism

Europe is a strength that allows us to control our destiny better than we could do alone

he insisted. Like Merkel did Prague, Hollande stressed that security, defence, investment and youth issues needed a common approach (i e more Europe). 

On 9 September the French President will participate at a meeting of southern Europe member states in Athen, which is expected to advocate for growth and investment against the rigor preached by northern Europe.

So far after the Brexit referendum no new vision for the EU has emerged. "The big three" cling to the old one - more Europe. It's like they can not see the writing on the wall, e g the warnings in the 2016 survey from the German Bertelsmann Stiftung.

Ventotene meeting - symbolism or innovation ?

Preparations for the informal (UK not invited) Bratislava EU summit 16 September are comprehensive. To day Italian PM Renzi hosts Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande for talks at the Ventotene island near Naples. His choice of this island as venue is very symbolic. This is the place where Altiero Spinnelli and Ernesto Rossi were imprisoned during the war and wrote the Manifesto of Ventotene i 1941. They argued for a European Federation to prevent the emergence of nationalism and new wars. The manifesto is a seminal document i the EU history. Spinelli, which later became both a European Commissioner and MEP (the main building of the European Parliament in Brussels is named after him), is also buried here, and the three leaders will lay a wreath on his tomb.

The Ventotene meeting might potentially be important. EU seems to be at a crossroads - a choice between more or less Europe. The leaders are unsure and perceptions among the member states  varies. Diplomacy and political activity before the Bratislava meeting will include all member states, but the three leaders that meet today are heavyweights, and their perceptions usually provides guidance for plenary discussions. 

It can probably be tempting to get carried away by a Federation mood at Ventotene, but the three leaders should be cautious in drawing conclusions or send strong signals. The challenges can not be solved through persistent faith in old beliefs, but requires flexibility and if possible innovative thinking. 

The Ventotene Manifesto represented innovative thinking, which Monnet later elaborated. But while the Federative idea in the Manifesto has been highlighted it should be noted that it also says that the integration will be carried out 

while allowing every state to retain the necessary autonomy for establishing and developing a political life which takes into account the specific characteristics of its people.

The tiny plant of a European shake up

While many Europeans still enjoy relaxed days with sun and summer, others are looking for the battles ahead. As part of preparations for the informal EU summit in Bratislava in September, EU Council president Tusk plans to visit every EU captal, including London, over the next four weeks. Yesterday he had a "kick-off" meeting with chancellor Merkel in Germany.

The Bratislava meeting will be a forum for reflections of possible EU reforms. According to EU observer the crucial question is

Should Europe make another leap forward in integration in reaction to the Brexit vote, with further pooling of sovereignty on economic governance and immigration, or .. (should it) hand greater control to national capitals to avoid feeding euroscepticism.

EU observer mentions that Merkel and her party, along with several central European leaders, have indicated wariness on further integration. In contrast  the Social Democratic Party in Germany's ruling coalition, as well as France and Italy, are pulling in the other direction. Italy is planning to hold an informal summit with France and Germany on the island of Ventotene next week to set out its ideas.

The informal Council meeting in Bratislava will also discuss how to handle future relations with the UK.

The two focus points on the Bratislava agenda are of course interwoven. Brexit triggered the reform discussion, and a strategic handling of Brexit will be easier if the EU future course is clearer. 

The Bratislava process might also bring important inputs to Brexit-discussions in the UK. Here they are still struggling to define what kind of Brexit solution they want. 

Although the EU's own development and the future relationship between the EU and the UK are  unclear, there is a broad process going on. A small reform plant has grown up. The politcal actors are  considering possible solutions. Some that did not fit before, may be accepted later. E g has Norway become less hostile to letting UK to join EFTA. A development which makes a kind of EEA solution for the UK a bit more possible as an alternative.

The reform plant is tiny, but it is real.

Freedom in the mountains and in Brussels

Heading for the mountains is always a stimulating experience and many people use the mountains to recharge the batteries. There are certainly both physical and psychological explanations of how this process works. One of them is probably the feeling of freedom. Daily routines and rules are left behind. There are fewer restrictions, your own capacity defines the limits.

How the use of "mountain-freedom" is an expression of own capacities can be observed by looking at hiking. Most people use the trails or tracks, i e marked routes between destinations. In many mountain areas they do not have to. They are free to walk outside the tracks, choosing their own route. That is of course because the trails represent the most lazy alternative. You don´t have to study the map so much, don´t have to be prepared for unexpected obstacles or being afraid to get lost. You need only be able to follow the track.

Following a track can be seen as ceding some freedom to carry out a hike adapted to own capacities. But this is a voluntary ceding of freedom, if you want to you can - and some people do - walk outside the marked route. You can also use the trail offer as you wish: walk alone or with a group, wear the gear you want to, use more or less time than the stipulated etc.

In the same way as people use a trail to exploit their capacity effectively, the origin of the EU was based on identification of areas where voluntary ceding of some power from the national to the supranational level would give added value to everyone. But to day this kind of thinking appears to have been replaced by a desire to transmit as much power as possible to the supranational level. In the Brussels bubble they want - with a metaphor (or may be it is already real politics) - to regulate where you can go, if you can walk alone or not, how many persons there shall be in a walkinggroup, what gear you have to wear and every other thing they think Brussels need to decide for you. The EU needs to rethink this development, otherwise the exit-trails will become more popular.

Walking the Brexit trail - II

Although it is not yet possible to say what Brexit will look like, it is worth noticing how the framework is under construction. PM May does not stay home making a position paper without inputs, but are visiting colleagues in the UK and the EU for talks. She presents her priorities and the colleagues give their feedback. This is somewhat similar to the procedure former PM Cameron used to prepare his EU deal. But there is an important difference. The purpose of the deal was to secure continued UK membership in the EU, now it is about preparing UKs exit. 

And while the media report the different views and statements from the meetings, it is nevertheless a process characterized by a willingness to find solutions. This way of working can contribute to the necessary changes in the EU. So far has the political pressure for reforms not been big enough, despite growing protests in member countries towards Brussels integration zeal. Now a column in the power structure disappears. Brexit is underway, promises and empty phrases can not prevent it. 

The willingness to find Brexit solutions seems to spill over to the stalled Switzerland-EU negotiations about the Swiss referendum in 2014, demanding quotas on immigration including from EU. The Daily Mail reported some days ago that European Commission President Juncker has opened for a deal which allows Switzerland to introduce migrant curbs.

On the 29 June 2016, just a few days after the British referendum 23 June, the heads of state or government in the 27 remaining member states in the EU met informally in Brussels to discuss the political and practical implications of Brexit. Leaders started a debate on the future of the European Union. On the 16 September 2016 they will meet informally again in Bratislava and continue a political reflection to give an impulse to further reforms and to the development of the EU with 27 member states. 

The autumn 2016 might be important for many countries.