Tuesday 29 December 2015

UK - EU negotiations: The difference between compromises and solutions


PM Cameron presented his wishlish for reforms at the European Council 17 december 2015. Afterwards there was an exchange of views between the participants. The media reported that Cameron´s proposals are difficult to meet, but there is willingness to compromise. This may sound positive for the negotiations, but does not mean Cameron will succeed. To do that he must achieve solutions to the four problem areas he described in his letter to President Tusk. The letter does not specify exactly how the reforms should be designed. That can be done in several ways and is a matter for the negotiations. But it is important that the concerns of the British people over their membership in the European union are properly addressed.

There are lots of EU sceptics in UK who argue that Cameron´s reform-wishlist is "trivial", that the only adequate measure for UK will be to leave the Union. If  Cameron comes back from the negotiations with compromises - measures which don´t address the challenges he describes well enough - it will be a gift-package to the leave-camp. They can then argue that not even such a modest wishlist as Camerons was the EU willing to accept.

To convince enough people that UK should remain in the Union, it will be important for him to negotiate credible solutions to his four problem areas (economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty and immigration). He has some wiggle room, but the negotiations must appear as a success.

The media gave an illustration of Camerons wiggle room some days ago. According to an "unnamed official" had French and German leaders made a counter offer to Camerons proposal of a four year ban before EU migrants can claim benefits. They had offered Cameron a three year ban. If correct this might be enough for Cameron to claim successful negotiations concering benfits for EU migrants. A two year ban would be a typical fifty-fifty compromise and will not be enough for him.








Sunday 13 December 2015

Cameron´s EU negotiations



In an earlier discussion of possible EU-reforms we mentioned different expressions of dissatisfaction with how the union works: Eurosceptic gains in national elections, national referendums opposing EU politics, lawsuits from member countries against EU and the forthcoming remain/leave referendum in UK. This blogpost will have a closer look at the UK referendum.

PM Cameron announced in January 2013 his intention to undertake a renegotiation of EU practices to make them more aligned with UK government preferences, and to subsequently hold a UK referendum on EU membership. The proposals were contained in the Conservative manifest for the general elections in May 2015. With a new Conservative majority government he started the negotiation process and a EU referendum bill was introduced to the Parliament the same month.

It took some time before Cameron gave a fairly specific description of what he wanted to renegotiate with the EU. After conversatitions with his fellow Heads of Governments and upon a request from members of the European Council he described his "wishlist" in a letter to Council President Tusk 10 November. The letter together with Tusk´s comments will be discussed at the Council meeting 17 December.

According to Cameron´s letter he is seeking reforms in four areas: Economic Governance, Competitiveness, Sovereignty and Immigration. For each of the four areas he mentions concrete measures and principles which should be implemented to address the concerns of the British people over their membership of the European Union. He emphasizes that the reforms must be legally binding, but he does not describe the precise means, or detailed legal proposals, for bringing the reforms into effect. "That is a matter for negotiation, not least as there may, in each case, be different ways of achiving the same result".

Cameron said earlier there would be a lot of speculations during the negotiations. And this was obviously a correct prediction. The media coverage is filled with analyzes, rumours and references to "well informed" anonymous sources.

The negotiations are also characterized as a predetermined theatre where the europhile Cameron and the EU after apparently "very tough" discussions finally will present a trivial deal as a great reform success. But even if that perspective may be important to have in mind, the negotiations are a real political fight within the European Union and the British people will of course not be fooled by a  failure presented as a success.

The British wishlist and threat of exit represent a new and demanding challenge for the EU. On the one hand it´s difficult to let UK be cherry picking among EU-policies. Other member states would then demand the same option and the Unions politics would soon be chaotic. On the other hand, if the negotiations end with failure for Cameron and a "leave"-majority in the referendum, the consequences for the Union might be serious. Marine Le Pen, leader of France´s Front National, said some days ago that “Brexit would be marvelous - extraordinary - for all European peoples who long for freedom” and if the British public were to vote to leave the European Union it would be the modern equivalent of the toppling of the Berlin Wall and herald the beginning of the end for the bloc. A failure will also be yet another indication that the EU can not be reformed or reversed.

The only good solution will be to transform Camerons wishes into reforms which can benefit both UK and the 27 other member states. Cameron writes in the letter that this is his ambition and flexibility is necessary for success. But to convince he must of course come home with more than some adopted generalities.

It will be a difficult process.

Thursday 10 December 2015

Enough pressure for EU-reforms ?


No crisis seems to be big enough to hamper the european integration. The glue in the EU-construction is strong and the political majorities follow gladly the leading star of an ever closer union. Perhaps this development will continue. Someone says that it is impossible to change the EU-system. But resistance may now be so great that reforms are preferable to possible destruction.

Euro and migration crisis, democratic deficit and lack of trust have strengthened nationalism and the desire for a Europe with real subsidiarity. This development is expressed in many ways, including

Eurosceptic gains in national elections.
Poland's eurosceptic opposition conservatives, the Law and Justice party (PiS), won the general election in October this year. In Switzerland (which is not a EU member, but affects the European political temperature) a general election the same month became a triumph for the eurosceptic Swiss Peoples Party. Last Sunday Front National won the opening round in France´s regional elections

National referendums oppose EU politics.
A majority of Swiss voters backed a referendum proposal to bring back strict quotas for immigration from EU countries in february 2014. According to EurActiv the bid to seal an agreement between Bern and Brussels has been stalled by EU member Britain's similar demand to limit immigration from within the EU, making it hard for the EU to offer a preferential deal for Switzerland before it has settled matters with Britain. Switzerland has now threatened to impose unilateral curbs on immigration should it fail to agree with the European Union on limiting the influx into a country where nearly a quarter of the population is foreign. Earlier in December the Danes rejected  to abandon their opt-outs from EU home affairs legislation and adopt EU-rules for cross-border policing.

Lawsuits from member countries against EU.
Slovakia has just filed a lawsuit at the European Court of Justice against an EU decision to redistribute 120 000 asylum seekers among the member countries, the first legal challenge to a measure that has divided the bloc. Also Hungary has said it has filed an equivalent lawsuit.

Remain/leave referendum in UK.
Based on a renegotiation of the British EU membership, there will be a remain/leave referendum in UK by the end of 2017.

Eeach of these developments are important and toghether they represent great pressure for EU reforms. But will it be enough ? Not necessarily, but the UK´s renegotiation and referendum might be a game changer in history of EU-reforms. The next blogpost will have a closer look at the renegotiation.