Important UK - EU negotiations

While we are waiting for PM Cameron to present a more detailed whishlist for a reformed relationship between UK and the European Union, it is interesting to have a look at the negotiation  process. It is a political tool intended to ensure a "yes" majority in the forthcoming referendum.

But who are the people that will be influenced by the negotiation results ? It is not the europhiles. They will vote yes even if Cameron comes back empty-handed. The anti-EU camp want UK to leave the supranational EU and will vote no even if he has a great success. The primary audience to be influenced are voters outside these two groups, the people whose attitude to EU-membership are more open.

This does not mean that the negotiation results are of no significanse for europhiles and eurosceptics. On the contrary these groups will use the results in their referendum campaigns, arguing that necessary EU-reformes are achieved or that the results show that significant EU-reforms are impossible.

Successful negotiations are also important for the EU. The Union needs reforms to cope with financial crisis, growing eurosceptism and lack of trust. An UK-exit will be a severe blow for the Union.

Because the negotiation results are of importance for so many, the process will be a serious effort of policy development and can at best initiate a necessary adaption of European integration.

UK election with international consequences

PM Cameron confirmed in his first speech after the general election on 7 May that there will be an EU referendum before the end of 2017. The referendum will be based on a renegotiated relationship between the Union and the UK.

Exactly what Cameron´s demands will be is still unknown. Earlier he has said that Britain not will follow "an ever closer union" as a lodestar any longer, that he will not accept that changes in the single market shall be imposed on non-eurozone members by the eurozone, and that he wants a scrutinizing of social benefits for EU migrants and greater powers to national parliaments.

The process which now will start up must be welcomed, because the European Union needs reforming. The realistic possibility for a British exit will put pressure on the Union and give Cameron weight in the negotiations.

It is of course impossible to predict what Cameron can achieve and what the result of an referendum will be. What seems clear is that both the negotiating period with a lot of discussions and the referendum will have international implications and consequences.

When the EU starts negotiating it will be highly aware that any concession to Cameron might tempt other members to ask for the same - with or without threaths of exit. And a Brexit may raise questions about the unions viability. Therefore it may be that the Union will not only discuss special arrangements for UK but also will look for universal solutions - ie reforms for the Union as a whole. Even if the negotiations will steer away from issuses that require treaty changes, they might include questions which can be settled by using the simplified procedure for treaty changes and they might also result in agreements which will be incorporated in treaty amendments later. And the negotiations can of course be a sort of kickoff for a wider reform process in the Union.

The forthcoming discussions and negotiations will also be of interest outside the EU. For the EEA EFTA countries Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein the discussions of a possible Brexit will be of special interest. If UK decide to leave the Union, it will have to reorganise the relationship with the EU. One of the most likely options will then be to join the EEA. That will mean new opportunities and new challenges for the current EEA EFTA countries.

A Brexit will have geopolitical consequences. EU as a whole will get less weight compared to other major powers. How UK will be perceived is not as clear. An article in Washington Post 9 May, which also commented upon the election success of the Scottish National Party, said UK now risks becoming more isolated than at any time in its modern history, and that David Cameron will need all his skills to avoid going down in history as the founding father of Little England. The proponents of Brexit will of course describe the situation quite differently.