Wednesday 31 December 2014

An unnoticed 50 years anniversary


2014 is fading away. During the year there have been many anniversaries and commemorations - among them the first world war centenary. Passing unnoticed is the 50 years anniversary for a paper, Elective Governments - A force for Peace, written by Dean Voris Babst and published in The Wisconsin Sociologist in 1964. 

The purpose of Babst´s paper was to provide a preliminary test of the hypothesis: Freely elected governments of independent states, the borders of which are firmly etablished, do not make war against each other. The assumption was that the general public does not want war, if it can choose.

The test was made by asking the question "Have there been any wars fought between independent, freely elected goverments ?" In order to objectively compare governments of various areas for different periods, it was necessary to develop an operational definition of the type of government which was of interest. The definition used was that a government is freely elected, for the year under consideration, when it has the following four characteristics:

           1. Legislation and national finances are controlled by a legislature or parliament whose members are chosen by majority vote from at least two opposing choises, at regular intervals, by the electorate
           2. The administrative control of the government is by an executive chosen by majority vote by a parliament secured in the above manner, or by direct vote of the electorate, from two or more opposing candidates, at regular intervals. If a hereditary ruler, such as a king, can chose the prime minister or president, then the country is not considered to have an elective government unless the monarch´s function is primarily ceremonial.
           3. There is a secret ballot and some freedom of speech and press, otherwise the opposing choises are not legitimate.
           4. Since in a country that is not independent the population cannot exercise a relevant choise the country must be independent at the start of the war.

Using this definition Babst examined 116 major wars from 1789 to 1941, with 438 participating countries, to determine if any freely elected independent government fought each other. The analysis shows that no such wars have been fought. Such nations have fought many wars against autocratic governments, and even some against their own colonies who wanted to become independent, but these nations have not waged war against each other. No rigorous test of the wars from World War II to 1963 was made, but Babst tells that a general review of the main wars since 1941 appears to be consistent with the findings for the period 1789 to 1941.

5 pages and 4 references. Indeed Babst´s paper is not a voluminous contribution to the social sciences. But if it becomes more known, the potential impact seems to be great. May be Babst and his paper will get a bit more attention in 2064.