EEA - from Brexit option to Brexit obligation ?

EEA - Europoean Economic Area - is one of the Brexit options that have been discussed. The UK participates in the EEA to day, and could possibly continue as a (new) EFTA country or perhaps even as a "third" country without being an EU- or EFTA-member. Because of the 2 years limit for negotiations following a triggering of Article 50, EEA membership has been advocated as a practical transitional Brexit solution until UK and EU have negotiated a more permanent relationship.

Now the media can tell that the government is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU. A British think tank argues that the UK will not leave the EEA - which provide the members access to the single market - automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide. They are writing  to Brexit Seretary David Davis to inform him that it will seek a formal judicial review of the government's position. The group warned that if the government did not get a clear legal opinion it could potentially end up acting outside the law.

It had been assumed that when Britain leaves the EU it would automatically leave the EEA as well.
But some lawyers argue that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and would happen only if Britain formally withdraws by triggering Article 127 of the EEA agreement. The legal question is focused on whether the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right or because it is a member of the EU.

In a situation where the government either has no Brexit-plan or will not divulge what it is about, the remainers and the soft-Brexiters are creative in finding opportunities to derail or slow the Brexit process.

Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein have as EU non-member countries for more than 20 years had access to the single market through the EEA Agreement. Because of political and legal obstacles to a quick Brexit process, it appears that the three countries now can be joined by the UK - for a period or ultimately more permanent.

Does PM May have a Brexit fallback plan ?

About two months ago PM May told the Tory Party conference that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. That gave her half a year for preparations. To day, with only four months left, her preferred Brexit solution is still unknown.

The Brexit process is a very complicated political project. That applies to the UK, but also for the EU. In the UK there are hard and soft Brexiters, remainers trying to derail the process and have another referendum and in October a high court ruling  (which the government has appealed) said the parliament must vote on the decision. Still the government claims the Brexit process is on the track and will not be delayed. It may seem implausible, but can be realistic if the government has agreed on a fallback.

A Brexit fallback plan would be a form of emergency solution - a compromise that respects the referendum and can be accepted by a sufficiently broad political majority. There are now signs that such a plan actually exists and is being developed. The most important is that PM May a few days ago told a business conference that she wants to avoid a "cliff edge" after Brexit. According to several newspapers she indicated she therefore first would try to get a transitional Brexit deal. Such a solution would give the UK (and the EU) more time to develop the UK-EU relations.

How would a transitional Brexit look like? To avoid a "cliff edge", a soft Brexit seems most likely. The obvious scheme would be to "switch" from EU membership to a EFTA- and EEA participation ("Norway-option"). But even if this solution - which economically has worked well for the EU and the EFTA / EEA countries - might be possible to achieve within the negotiation period after triggering Article 50, both the UK, the EU and the EFTA members will face challenges. But all Brexit alternatives represent difficulties, and with only four months left before end of March PM May have to decide soon.

 

Brexit clues appear

The struggle between Brexiters - hard and soft - and Remainers continues. No path is presented and a leaked memo from Deloitte suggests the Government still has no plan for Brexit.

But some important clues of a possible Brexit solution seem to appear now. And they are not surprising.

Yesterday UK Foreign secretary Boris Johnson said in an interview with the Czech newspaper Hospodárské that Britain would like to keep access to the single market while clamping down on migration. He also speculated Britain would have to leave the EU´s custom union, in which members agree to impose common tariffs on countries outside the group, so it could strike its own trade deals. Mr Johnson also said that there will be a dynamic trade relationship between the the UK and the EU.

Mr Johnson´s statements indicate an EEA-like Brexit solution for the UK. A central feature of the EEA is its dynamic aspect, the common rules of the agreement are updated continuously with new EU legislation; a customs union is not covered and there are safeguard measures giving the members possibilities for opt outs from the four freedoms.

Chancellor Merkel has just said that an improved offer to the UK on migration could be forthcoming - a statement which in reality perhaps is just a recognition of the opt out possibilities of an EEA solution.

Speaking to the BBC´s Newsnight, Dutch finance minister and president of the eurozone´s Eurogroup, Dijsselbloem, yesterday said Mr Johnson was putting forward options that "are really not available".

There are many different statements in the pre-negotiation period, and one can not know for certain what will be UK's preferred Brexit solution. But the EEA agreement seems to represent a realistic starting point

A Brexit-teammate in the USA

The Brexiters have now got a valueable teammate. Donald Trump´s victory shows that the opposition to unrestrained globalisation and integration is a worldwide phenomen.

Still shocked by the result, many politicians and commentators try to understand what Trump has called a "Brexit plus-plus-plus". - The polls showed a Clinton win, why could not anyone predict a loss ? The answer is very simple. Media were in reality part of the Clinton campaign, and clear notices of a Trump victory were ignored. LA Times/USC Tracking had shown Trump victory almost daily for several months. And in the weeks before the election the IBD/TIPP Tracking - the most reliable pollster in the recent presidential elections - predicted close race or a Trump win.

The international "Brexit cooperation" is naturally in the early stages, but to day UKIP´s  Nigel Farage flies to America in a bid to be Donald Trump´s ambassador to the EU.

A dangerous Court ruling

Yesterday three High Court judges ruled that the British Parliament should have a chance to reconsider Brexit. Today's news headlines show strong reactions to the court's involvement in a political process: "Enemies of the People", "We must get out of the EU", "Who do EU think you are", "Three judges versus the people" etc.

The court decision is dangerous, as it implies that the implementation of the peoples will, expressed in the referendum 23 June, might be blocked. The judges behind the court ruling are of course not neutral. According to the newspapers they seem to be establishment europhiles, grabbing the Brexit-ball and sending it to the pro EU majority in the Parliament.

This court ruling will not unite a divided people, but lead to further polarization and hatred of the EU. Nor is it a gift to the EU. On the contrary, it will reinforce the impression among many inhabitants of the member countries that the Union is undemocratic and that the popular will is subordinate to what the elite in Brussels believes.