Wednesday 16 November 2016

Brexit clues appear


The struggle between Brexiters - hard and soft - and Remainers continues. No path is presented and a leaked memo from Deloitte suggests the Government still has no plan for Brexit.

But some important clues of a possible Brexit solution seem to appear now. And they are not surprising.

Yesterday UK Foreign secretary Boris Johnson said in an interview with the Czech newspaper Hospodárské that Britain would like to keep access to the single market while clamping down on migration. He also speculated Britain would have to leave the EU´s custom union, in which members agree to impose common tariffs on countries outside the group, so it could strike its own trade deals. Mr Johnson also said that there will be a dynamic trade relationship between the the UK and the EU.

Mr Johnson´s statements indicate an EEA-like Brexit solution for the UK. A central feature of the EEA is its dynamic aspect, the common rules of the agreement are updated continuously with new EU legislation; a customs union is not covered and there are safeguard measures giving the members possibilities for opt outs from the four freedoms.

Chancellor Merkel has just said that an improved offer to the UK on migration could be forthcoming - a statement which in reality perhaps is just a recognition of the opt out possibilities of an EEA solution.

Speaking to the BBC´s Newsnight, Dutch finance minister and president of the eurozone´s Eurogroup, Dijsselbloem, yesterday said Mr Johnson was putting forward options that "are really not available".

There are many different statements in the pre-negotiation period, and one can not know for certain what will be UK's preferred Brexit solution. But the EEA agreement seems to represent a realistic starting point

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