Does PM May have a Brexit fallback plan ?

About two months ago PM May told the Tory Party conference that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. That gave her half a year for preparations. To day, with only four months left, her preferred Brexit solution is still unknown.

The Brexit process is a very complicated political project. That applies to the UK, but also for the EU. In the UK there are hard and soft Brexiters, remainers trying to derail the process and have another referendum and in October a high court ruling  (which the government has appealed) said the parliament must vote on the decision. Still the government claims the Brexit process is on the track and will not be delayed. It may seem implausible, but can be realistic if the government has agreed on a fallback.

A Brexit fallback plan would be a form of emergency solution - a compromise that respects the referendum and can be accepted by a sufficiently broad political majority. There are now signs that such a plan actually exists and is being developed. The most important is that PM May a few days ago told a business conference that she wants to avoid a "cliff edge" after Brexit. According to several newspapers she indicated she therefore first would try to get a transitional Brexit deal. Such a solution would give the UK (and the EU) more time to develop the UK-EU relations.

How would a transitional Brexit look like? To avoid a "cliff edge", a soft Brexit seems most likely. The obvious scheme would be to "switch" from EU membership to a EFTA- and EEA participation ("Norway-option"). But even if this solution - which economically has worked well for the EU and the EFTA / EEA countries - might be possible to achieve within the negotiation period after triggering Article 50, both the UK, the EU and the EFTA members will face challenges. But all Brexit alternatives represent difficulties, and with only four months left before end of March PM May have to decide soon.