Cameron´s EU negotiations

In an earlier discussion of possible EU-reforms we mentioned different expressions of dissatisfaction with how the union works: Eurosceptic gains in national elections, national referendums opposing EU politics, lawsuits from member countries against EU and the forthcoming remain/leave referendum in UK. This blogpost will have a closer look at the UK referendum.

PM Cameron announced in January 2013 his intention to undertake a renegotiation of EU practices to make them more aligned with UK government preferences, and to subsequently hold a UK referendum on EU membership. The proposals were contained in the Conservative manifest for the general elections in May 2015. With a new Conservative majority government he started the negotiation process and a EU referendum bill was introduced to the Parliament the same month.

It took some time before Cameron gave a fairly specific description of what he wanted to renegotiate with the EU. After conversatitions with his fellow Heads of Governments and upon a request from members of the European Council he described his "wishlist" in a letter to Council President Tusk 10 November. The letter together with Tusk´s comments will be discussed at the Council meeting 17 December.

According to Cameron´s letter he is seeking reforms in four areas: Economic Governance, Competitiveness, Sovereignty and Immigration. For each of the four areas he mentions concrete measures and principles which should be implemented to address the concerns of the British people over their membership of the European Union. He emphasizes that the reforms must be legally binding, but he does not describe the precise means, or detailed legal proposals, for bringing the reforms into effect. "That is a matter for negotiation, not least as there may, in each case, be different ways of achiving the same result".

Cameron said earlier there would be a lot of speculations during the negotiations. And this was obviously a correct prediction. The media coverage is filled with analyzes, rumours and references to "well informed" anonymous sources.

The negotiations are also characterized as a predetermined theatre where the europhile Cameron and the EU after apparently "very tough" discussions finally will present a trivial deal as a great reform success. But even if that perspective may be important to have in mind, the negotiations are a real political fight within the European Union and the British people will of course not be fooled by a  failure presented as a success.

The British wishlist and threat of exit represent a new and demanding challenge for the EU. On the one hand it´s difficult to let UK be cherry picking among EU-policies. Other member states would then demand the same option and the Unions politics would soon be chaotic. On the other hand, if the negotiations end with failure for Cameron and a "leave"-majority in the referendum, the consequences for the Union might be serious. Marine Le Pen, leader of France´s Front National, said some days ago that “Brexit would be marvelous - extraordinary - for all European peoples who long for freedom” and if the British public were to vote to leave the European Union it would be the modern equivalent of the toppling of the Berlin Wall and herald the beginning of the end for the bloc. A failure will also be yet another indication that the EU can not be reformed or reversed.

The only good solution will be to transform Camerons wishes into reforms which can benefit both UK and the 27 other member states. Cameron writes in the letter that this is his ambition and flexibility is necessary for success. But to convince he must of course come home with more than some adopted generalities.

It will be a difficult process.