Tuesday 26 July 2016

Walking the Brexit trail



Despite many warnings UK decided 23 June 2016 to start walking the Brexit trail. Apart from some financial turbulence at the very start, it has so far not appeared any serious problems. But it is a long trail, they are supposed to be walking for years.

Unlike most other trails it is not known exactly where it ends. PM May has said
Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it ... There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, there will be no attempts to rejoin it by the back door, no second referendum ... I will make sure that we leave the European Union
And concerning access to the EU´s single market and immigration:
We need to get the best deal in trade and goods and services ... I'm very clear that the Brexit vote was also a message that we need to get control on free movement. Free movement cannot continue as it has done until now
May has also stressed the importance of keeping the UK together.

Even if it seems to respect the referendum result, the PM´s description of Brexit is far from exact. The vagueness opens for a discussion about quite different perspectives. Some Brexit-hardliners emphasizes the importance of repealing the European Communities Act from 1972, which would, in practice, mean that EU legislation would become unenforceable in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar, and the powers delegated by the Act to the EU institutions would return to the Parliament of the UK. They will not join the Single Market, but instead negotiate trade agreements with the EU. Others are highlighting the need to achieve a balance between between access to the tariff-free market and the Single Market four freedoms. Voices are also advocating that by using the EEA Agreement and EFTA the UK can take part in the single market while limiting immigration. 
Statements from leaders of EU-institutions and -memberstates, eg Tusk, Juncker, Merkel, Hollande and Sapin, show both an acceptance that UK need some time for Brexit-preparations and a willingness to negotiate compromises.

While the UK is working to find out where the Brexit-trail ends, it is difficult to imagine that the country would be satisfied with a traditional trade-agreement. Because EU´s internal market and the EURO cooperation is dynamic, PM Cameron asked for and got "EURO safeguards" for UK as a non-EURO member of the EU. Cameron´s EU-deal is now history, and therefore the UK will probably need a Brexit with something more than a static trade-agreement.


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