Thursday 22 December 2016

Consequences of the Netherlands-EU deal on Ukraine



On 6 April 2016 Dutch citizens for the first time tested their new "direct democracy" tool - a referendum possibility on legislative decisions if more than 300 000 signatures of supporters are gained.

The background for the referendum on 6 April was partly the general dissatisfaction with the EU and more specifically the ratification of the EU-Ukraine agreement. Voters should answer the question: "Do you support or oppose the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement?"

Before the referendum the Dutch government argued strongly for a "yes", but the result was that 61% of the voters said "no" to the ratification. Even if the referendum is "advisory" and not legally binding, the result represented a problem for the Dutch government. And for the EU. If the Netherlands said "no" to ratification, it would stop a process which the 27 other member states (and the Dutch government, the Ukraine and the US) wanted to continue. And if the Netherlands said "yes", it would be another example of how the EU circumvents and neglects undesired referendum results.

8 months after the referendum the Dutch government and the EU have now agreed how this can be handled. The solution is a deal - adopted by the European Council 15 December 2016 - which supplies the EU-Ukraine Agreement with a supplementary addressing "..the concerns expressed prior to the referendum ..".  Dutch PM Rutte has said he is uncertain if the deal will secure a ratification from the Dutch parliament. 

It is difficult to predict how the Dutch referendum and the Netherlands-EU deal will affect European politics. May be the deal will be accepted by the Dutch parliament as a reasonable compromise. But there is absolutely a possibility that Geert Wilders and eurosceptics can capitalize on it in the forthcoming general elections in the Netherlands. And also in other countries the handling of the Dutch referendum will be followed with great interest.
 

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