Drivers of change

During 2016 the pressure for EU reforms has deepened, which has been clearly expressed by referendums in several European countries. But the big picture is unclear. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the Union while the majority of EU voters do not want to follow the UK into leaving the bloc.

The situation seems to be that the European Union still stands firm, but changes will come. Decentralization is a keyword. Equally as important is the content of the politics - whether it is produced by the EU or the Member States. The Scottish historian Niall Ferguson has some interesting reflections in an interview with Nikkei Asian Review .

The frame for the interview is what to expect from US foreign policy under a Trump administration, and Ferguson draws attention to the change drivers behind Brexit and Trumps victory.

The first question for Furguson is about the main driver behind the Trump phenomen. He answears that many people have jumped to the conclusion that populism is mainly about economics because populists focus on immigration, free trade and other similar issues.

But there is a very noneconomic cultural component to it. Part of what people are reacting against is not just globalization but multiculturalism and a whole range of other ideas.

The cultural aspects are more important. What makes Trump popular and what made Brexit happen is a cultural backlash which has to do with immigration, but not only with immigration. It actually has to do with a whole complex of liberal ideas that members of the elite really like, cosmopolitan ideas about cultural relativism, feminism, all kinds of different liberal ideas that are profoundly unappealing to middle America, middle England, to people who perhaps didn't go to elite institutions to study and therefore don't feel the same enthusiasm for these ideas.

After being invited to expand on multiculturalism he says

If one looks at polling data in the U.K and the U.S., it's very striking how populist voters, people who voted for Brexit or voted for Trump, expressed their dissatisfaction. It isn't just about employment. It isn't just about the economy generally. It's about the perception that, for example, policy has gone too far in giving advantages to minorities. It's about the sense of estrangement between middle America and the elite sissies on the coasts.

I cite often Charles Murray's book "Coming Apart." He argued there was a profound social polarization in America between elite, highly educated groups and a white working-class that felt not just economically but culturally alienated from the Obama presidency. And I think those issues can't be simplified with terms like racism. The reason the slogan "Make America Great Again" resonated with so many people was that they felt America had, in some measure, changed to their disadvantage. The Trump victory represented a relatively spontaneous backlash against this politically correct culture. ........

In many ways, Brexit and Trump were, in fact, improvements on a status quo that was failing. Clearly, things have to change in Europe. The Monetary Union has been a failure. One can't simply carry on pretending that it works, because the result is a permanent economic slump in southern Europe. The migration policy has been a disaster. They can't simply have open borders around the Mediterranean. So those things need to be changed. And I think Brexit may have sent the first of a series of signals to Europe's leaders to change their ways.

In history, nothing lasts forever. And the ideas and institutions of the Cold War have had a remarkably long life, considering that the Cold War ended 25 years ago. We probably need some new ideas at this point. So I think populism is, for all its kind of crudity and vulgarity, it's a healthy challenge to a status quo that was failing.

Will the EU be able to identify and manage the change drivers Ferguson describes, or is the Brussels-culture unable to perceive and take account of strong signals from alienated voters ?