The Era of Rearmament

The Ukraine war reshapes European politics and priorities. From being hopefully protected under a largely US financed and equipped NATO umbrella, the EU is adopting to a situation where they are afraid of being left alone if attacked by Russia.

Two alternatives exist for a way forward. Try to develop an all-European security structure which includes Russia, or rearmament against Russia. 

Nothing indicates the EU and their partners are interested in the first alternative. Peace and negotiation efforts during the Ukraine war have been attempted by Belarus, Israel an Turkey. The west has obstructed the efforts. Now the US has started a peace process, and the europeans are not happy with that. 

The strongly preferred alternative is bolstering the defence as much and as soon as possible. Albeit the possibility of a Russian attac seems unrealistic. Why should Russia attac other European countries,  most of them NATO-members. Ukraine is special, Russia has warned for many years that the country has to be neutral. Of course that can not be used as an excuse for the invasion, but it can explain it.

President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, presented last week a defence package. It is based on the assumption that Europe is threthened in a very real way. Europe have to massively boost it`s defence spending. We are in the era of rearmament.

The ReArm Europe plan consists of 5 parts, together they are meant to mobilise close to EUR 800 billion for a safe and resilient Europe.

It is unclear how much weapons and defence systems Europe can produce and how much must be delivered from others.  According to EU`s Compass of Competitiveness is the unions defence industry suffering from a combination of structural weaknesses and decades of underinvestment.